A mystery trader made $553,000 by betting on Iran’s supreme leader. Now Congress wants answers

A massive payout tied to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death has renewed debate over whether wagering on geopolitical violence crosses a legal and ethical line.

[Source Photos: Getty Images and Pexels]

BY Anna-Louise Jackson

Wagering on war and death is now a “thing,” thanks to prediction markets. So this explains how one trader pocketed more than $500,000 by placing bets on various scenarios related to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend.

On Polymarket, one trader with the username “Magamyman” netted more than $195,000 by betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. And he scored another $123,000 when, ahead of an Israeli strike on Saturday that killed Iran’s supreme leader, he wagered that the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be ousted from power. That trader also cashed in from several other well-timed bets that became profitable once the strikes began.

It’s the timing of those trades—plus other bets, including those placed by six newly created or newly funded accounts on the crypto-based platform that earned about $1 million in total—that’s drawing scrutiny from lawmakers who are concerned about the possibility of insider trading.

“PROFITING OFF WAR AND DEATH”

Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) called attention to the “Magamyman” trades on Saturday, posting on X that the user had placed the first trade only 71 minutes before the news of the strikes on Iran became public. “Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action,” Levin wrote.

Other lawmakers have since joined in on the outrage. Reacting to a post from analytics firm Bubblemaps SA that identified the six accounts that struck it big by betting the U.S. would strike Iran, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) posted on X: “It’s insane this is legal. People around Trump are profiting off war and death.”

While Murphy promised to introduce legislation that would ban this type of activity, some of his counterparts on the other side of the aisle have been conspicuously silent—even though they want a similar crackdown on stock trading. 

In January, Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) introduced legislation that would prohibit members of Congress and their families from purchasing publicly traded stocks. President Donald Trump touted this bill, the “Stop Insider Trading Act,” during last week’s State of the Union address.

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