When the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting descends on Cebu in May 2026, it will come at a time when there are pressing matters that need to be addressed and the corresponding leaders who can provide the right solutions for the said issues. At the time of writing, Indonesia has been chosen as the next Secretary-General of ASEAN, whose position will undoubtedly highlight Indonesia’s relevance in the regional organisation.

As superpower rivalries intensify and as conflicts in the region and across the world escalate, and as issues such as economic inequality and economic instability plague the region, ASEAN is facing its most critical challenges since its founding. How will the organisation manage to remain relevant in the face of such issues? This essay argues that Indonesia plays a significant role in ASEAN’s ability to navigate through these challenges and maintain strategic autonomy, given that the organisation’s largest member state is also in charge of setting the organisation’s strategic direction, navigating through various conflicts that are happening within and outside the region, and projecting influence well beyond the region’s borders.

As the largest democracy, most populous country, and strongest economy in ASEAN, Indonesia has for decades naturally wielded considerable influence across the region due to a combination of compulsory and persuasive elements. A leading mediating power, Indonesia often brings others together to drive policy and steer the region away from conflict, and this mediating function will once again be called upon at the upcoming ASEAN summit in Cebu. As the first such gathering in two years, Cebu will present challenges for Indonesian leaders, who will be expected to consolidate ASEAN’s position in the face of simultaneous and intense pressures coming from........

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