The Iran crisis is increasingly spinning out of control, and it is becoming increasingly clear that each of the major actors involved, including the US, Israel, Iran, China and Russia, has made it abundantly clear that they appear not to intend to do anything to slow it down. As a result, the world is now awash with unpredictability, instability, human suffering and a disregard for established norms of international diplomacy. And I fear this crisis, and the risk of wider war that accompanies it, will not be resolved at the level of the major powers. Rather, it will be managed by other middle powers, international and regional organisations, civil society networks, and by a host of other new forms of diplomacy. There will be many forms of diplomacy in the future, and it is through diversity of action that we can potentially diminish the possibility of war.

The reason that there is currently a standoff over the Iran crisis is that the conflict has developed from being a simple local or bilateral problem into a superpower conflict, with a resulting standoff. The US and Israel see Iran as a threat to their security. Iran sees its enemies as a threat to its existence. China and Russia are engaged in a lower-profile military manner but are beneficiaries of the conflict because it undermines Western interests and power. There is therefore no incentive for compromise, and a managed crisis is in the interests of all the major powers. This has caused the talks to break down; the humanitarian situation in the region is worsening, and there is currently no resolution in sight, with no one held to account for the ongoing destabilisation of the region.

Why is this crisis particularly complicated? In more than one way, the current crisis in relations between the West and Iran is complicated. The multiple pressures currently unfolding at the same time include the negotiations over the nuclear program, the wars in Syria and in other parts of the Middle East, the economic sanctions and human rights abuses, as well as the ideological battle for supremacy between the West and Iran. Anyone interested in bringing a peaceful solution to the conflict will........

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