he approaching expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 5, 2026 marks a critical inflection point in the global nuclear order. For the first time in more than half a century, the world is poised to enter an era without legally binding limits on the two largest nuclear arsenals. This development does not occur in isolation, rather it is embedded within a broader erosion of arms control norms, intensifying technological competition, and declining trust among major powers. The implications extend well beyond the bilateral relationship between Washington and Moscow, threatening the stability of the global nuclear architecture itself.

New START has functioned as the final pillar of bilateral nuclear restraint between the United States and Russia. Signed in 2010 and entering into force in 2011, the treaty capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 and imposed strict limits on delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. Crucially, it also introduced an intrusive verification regime, including on-site inspections, data exchanges, and mechanisms for dialogue through the Bilateral Consultative Commission. These measures not only constrained force levels but also reduced uncertainty, enabling both sides to avoid worst-case assumptions.

Despite its modest numerical reductions, New START played an outsized stabilizing role. By providing transparency and predictability, it helped prevent miscalculation during periods of political tension. Its expiration therefore represents more than the loss of a treaty, it signals the collapse of an entire framework that once regulated strategic competition between the world’s two largest nuclear powers. In the absence of........

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