Neither the US nor Israel wants a nuclear challenger in West Asia   

Grateful for the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has brought down the price of fuel, people are hailing the two-week ceasefire between the US/Israel, and Iran. The fact that Israel and Hezbollah are still at war has not dampened the euphoria over the ceasefire. 

However, the US and Israel, as well as Iran, have made it clear that war could resume if their conditions for a lasting peace are not met. The US and Israel have added that the present Pakistan-brokered ceasefire does not cover the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon and elsewhere. 

This is meant to keep up the pressure on Iran because the US and Israel believe that Hezbollah is a proxy or an arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

During the Iran-US talks in Islamabad on Friday, both parties will reiterate their respective lists of demands. The US will demand the capping of Iran’s missile capabilities; full and unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping;  cessation of attacks on Iran’s neighbours, and most importantly, giving up the nuclear weapons project and surrendering all the enriched uranium in Iran’s possession.

Iran will also reiterate its demands, including its right to have a nuclear project for peaceful purposes, the non-aggression, the removal of all bases in the countries bordering Iran, and reparations for the damages caused by US and Israeli bombings.

From the point of view of the US and Israel, the non-negotiable part of the list of demands is the cessation of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Neither the US nor Israel want a nuclear challenger in the Middle East. 

For the US, it is a question of prestige. Since the late 1940s, the US has been seeing a steady erosion of its command over nuclear weaponry. It began with the USSR acquiring a nuclear capability, followed by the UK and then France. North Korea could not be prevented from going nuclear. India and Pakistan acquired nuclear capabilities despite US sanctions. Now Iran is on its way to developing the capability, posing a grave threat to the US, Israel and America’s allies in West Asia. 

The power of the US and Israel in West Asia rests in their nuclear weapons. They cannot tolerate a fiercely independent, well-endowed, and technologically capable country like Iran developing and wielding nuclear weapons. They are particularly worried about nuclear weapons getting into the hands of Iran’s proxies in the region, like the Houthis and Hezbollah.  

At the Pentagon on Wednesday morning, War Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that the Iranians had been “humiliated and demoralised” over the past five weeks, and that the United States would get hold of the country’s nuclear stockpiles — by persuasion or by force. Briefing reporters, Hegseth said that an outcome of the negotiations must include an agreement by Iran to give up the 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade uranium the country has been storing deep underground, mostly at its Isfahan nuclear site. If this is not agreed to, the US will resume the war, Hegseth said.

The more soft-spoken chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, told reporters that US forces would remain in the Middle East and were “ready if ordered, or called upon, to resume combat operations with the same speed and precision as we’ve demonstrated over the past 38 days.”

But seizing the nuclear stockpile from a mountainous region will mean launching a land invasion fraught with heavy casualties and colossal equipment losses. The war is already very unpopular in the US, and NATO and Europe have shown no interest in joining it.     

And President Trump knows that even if the two-week cease-fire runs out on April 21 with no final agreement on the long list of issues, the political risk of renewing hostilities is high, particularly with the November midterm Congressional elections looming. There is also an upcoming summit with China’s leader, Xi Jinping.

The US can resume military operations at any moment. But the Iranians have shown they can turn around and threaten attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, with all the predictable effects on the price of oil and fertiliser. Thanks to the ceasefire, the fuel price has come down to $ 93 per barrel, and the stock market has gone up by 2%. Even the war’s supporters are disturbed by its cost, which is said to be $ 1 billion per day.

If war is resumed and it goes on for several weeks, oil prices will hit the roof again and will further weaken Trump’ chances in the November Congressional elections. 

The President is believed to be acutely aware of these outcomes. But still he will continue his bluff and bluster, including threats to wipe an “entire civilisation”, because that’s  his way of negotiating a deal. He  raises the ante to shock and awe the opponent into losing confidence before using the big stick.

© Eurasia Review