Iran is experiencing intense internal power struggles: Multiple centers of authority (Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the IRGC, President Pezeshkian, and hardline factions) are competing for dominance following the death of Ali Khamenei.

Hardliners (IRGC-aligned) are actively sabotaging negotiations: They censored TV interviews with chief negotiator Ghalibaf and others to undermine the US-Iran MoU and de-escalation efforts, revealing deep opposition to any deal with the US.

The IRGC holds significant but not absolute power: While many view it as the dominant force (controlling military, economic, and political levers), pragmatic/diplomatic elements and the new supreme leader create a contested, multilayered governance environment.

Ever since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, Iran has been an autocratic theocracy, ruled with an iron fist by the supreme leader – first Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini until his death in 1989, and then Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, until he was killed on February 28, 2026 in an airstrike.

Today’s Iran is no longer what it has been.  What it has become is the subject of controversial interpretations.

Some believe that Iran is no longer a republic of any kind but has morphed into a dictatorial, mafia-style oligarchy in military uniform.  The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), they maintain, exercises total control over political, economic and strategic decisions, whilst maintaining a theocratic veneer for the purposes of internal and international legitimacy.

They believe the new supreme leader is a puppet of the IRGC, selected under direct military pressure which bypassed the constitutional process. The new Khamenei certainly lacks religious credentials and public legitimacy, and has yet to demonstrate any independent authority.

Real power, they say, resides in three IRGC hardliners: IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi; Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr; and........

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