The United States and Israel have embarked on a profound new phase by launching direct military operations against Iran. Reactions have varied widely, from relief to concern and from celebration to fear. Yet, beneath these emotional responses lies a critical strategic inquiry: does undermining or toppling the Iranian regime enhance global security, or does it lay the groundwork for further instability?

Under Ali Khamenei’s leadership, the Iranian regime has been distinctly unambiguous and aggressive. It has exerted influence through proxy networks and an entrenched ideological approach, positioning itself against Western power and Israeli sovereignty. However, history warns us not to confuse regime change with a resulting stabilization in the region; strategic outcomes often follow unpredictable paths.

The real question isn’t whether the Iranian regime is repressive; it’s about what might replace it.

The Complications of Regime Change

Modern military history consistently illustrates the challenges of regime change. For instance, after the Taliban’s rapid fall in Afghanistan in 2001, chaos ensued rather than stabilization, leading to a two-decade insurgency with grave casualties, including nearly 3,000 American lives and countless Afghan deaths. Moreover, the Taliban eventually regained power, proving that military action does not guarantee political transformation.

Similarly, the ousting of Saddam Hussein in Iraq dismantled the central authority and resulted in a fragmentation of state institutions, leading to the rise of insurgent groups and sectarian violence. In Syria, the collapse of state structure opened doors for competing regional and global actors.

While Iran may have a more centralized and ideologically rigid system than these cases, the fundamental lesson remains: regimes can fall more swiftly than their systems can disintegrate. The intricate networks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, intelligence entities, and religious bodies create a tightly woven structure. If the central leadership fails, the fate of these networks—whether they disappear or merely........

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