In the early morning of February 28, citizens of the Middle East and the world woke up to news that a joint military campaign by American forces (Operation Epic Fury) and Israeli armed forces (Operation Furious Lion) had begun against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This was not just any operation, but a classic war—a brutal aggression that defies international and American law. Iran predictably retaliated with strikes on American bases in the region and by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Although the outbreak of war did not surprise any informed observer, as preparations had been ongoing for weeks, the consequences of this “air slaughter” could be horrifying in the truest sense of the word.

The formal justification by Donald Trump for the (preemptive) attack on Iran is the destruction of Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities to prevent them from threatening Israel and the U.S., and ultimately the overthrow of the Shiite theocratic regime. Although the 12-day war in June last year also aimed to neutralize Iran’s military and nuclear potential, an additional objective in this episode is the overthrow of Iran’s political order. In other words, this means war to the end and dramatically raises the stakes. This is evident as Israeli missiles on the first day of the attack targeted Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and about 40 high-ranking military commanders.

The formal shift in Trump’s agenda (his informal goal has long been to end the current regime) was influenced by violent anti-government protests that shook the Shiite theocracy late last year and earlier this year, leaving tens of thousands dead, though the regime was not toppled. Exiled leader of the Pahlavi dynasty, Reza Pahlavi, also reemerged; his father was overthrown by Islamists in 1979. If the Iranian people overthrow the Islamic Republic, he is ready to return to the throne his father lost.

The Impossibility of Peaceful Coexistence Between Islamists and Zionists

In recent weeks, negotiations mediated by Oman were held between the Americans and Iran, seeking an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, but no deal was reached. Neither side wanted a compromise. A real agreement between Zionists and Iranian Islamists is impossible and will remain so. The first want theocratic Iran destroyed; the latter demand the end of Israel. Once again, the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel, apparently supported by Iran, crossed a red line. The exchanges of fire in 2024, 2025, and 2026 are merely consequences of that reckless act.

It should be clear: in their direct conflict—which evolved from proxy confrontations—Israel has been winning. Hamas and Hezbollah have been nearly decimated, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has been toppled, Iran’s military power weakened, and in every exchange, top officials such as scientists, ministers, generals, and even the Ayatollah are casualties. Evidently, the Mossad and CIA penetrated deep into Iran’s military-intelligence structure, as without that, these assassinations would not have been possible.

Trump and Netanyahu Flout International Law

Although widely known, it must always be emphasized that the U.S.-Israeli aggression against Iran is illegal. Despite the preemptive strike argument aimed at preventing an Iranian nuclear attack, any attack by one state on another can only be authorized by the UN Security Council, which has not done so. Once again, the UN and international law have been bypassed, following NATO’s aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999, the U.S. and partners’ invasions of Iraq in 2003, and Syria in 2014.

Had another country, like Russia attacking Ukraine, conducted such an operation, much of the world would impose sanctions. Yet no country considers sanctioning the U.S. and Israel, except for some Muslim states. This demonstrates the impotence of the United Nations when major powers break international rules. According to U.S. law, such attacks require Congressional approval, which Trump ignored. Moreover, the assassination of foreign leaders is explicitly prohibited under U.S. law from the 1970s. Trump violated both provisions, acts worthy of Congressional impeachment. It is important to note that neighboring Arab states and NATO allies did not formally support the U.S. and Israel in this war, though some participate logistically.

Iranian Civilians—The Greatest Victims

Although Trump, Netanyahu, and other top U.S. and Israeli officials claim the attack targets the current government and its military facilities, not the Iranian people, this is highly questionable. History shows civilians bear the brunt of war. Civilian casualties predominate. Explosions in Tehran, Qom, Isfahan, Kermanshah, and elsewhere are deadly for ordinary people. Already, hundreds of civilians have reportedly died, including 148 girls at a girls’ school in Minab, southern Iran. Schools, hospitals, and private residences are being targeted—clear war crimes. Of course, no one will hold Trump, Netanyahu, or their proxies accountable before an international court of justice.

Iranian Retaliation Carries Great Risks

Iranian forces have not been idle, launching retaliatory strikes with drones and ballistic missiles on U.S. and Israeli targets in the region. Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq were targeted due to U.S. military bases or strongholds. Iranians also struck a British base in Cyprus and civilian aviation infrastructure in Kuwait and the Emirates, which support U.S. and Israeli military efforts. Israel itself, conducting the aggression, has also suffered casualties—at least a dozen Israelis killed and hundreds injured.

Iran will likely attempt to strike, or even sink, two U.S. aircraft carriers, the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford. The first is in the Arabian Sea, the second in the eastern Mediterranean, from which missiles and drones are launched at Iranian territory. While experts claim Iranians lack the capability to sink an aircraft carrier (a feat only Japanese kamikazes achieved at Iwo Jima), they could still inflict substantial damage.

The Closed Strait of Hormuz

Iran has already closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. On one side lies Iran, on the other Oman. It is one of the most strategically important energy corridors in the world: over 20% of global oil (around 20 million barrels daily) and an equal share of global LNG pass through it. Tankers transport huge amounts of oil from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait, while Qatar and the UAE export significant gas volumes.

A New Economic Shock for the World

The strait narrows to just 33 kilometers at its tightest point and is considered a critical “choke point” for global shipping. Any prolonged disruption would impede maritime trade and global commerce, sharply increasing oil and gas prices. This could trigger fuel and consumer goods shortages and runaway inflation—another economic blow while large parts of the world have yet to recover from the post-COVID economic crisis.

Trump—Minimal Cost for Maximum Gain

How will this war end? Viewing the world corporatistically, Trump believes eliminating Khamenei and other top officials will trigger internal collapse in Iran, street protests will erupt, and with American assistance, the Pahlavi Shah will return to power. This is a strategy of minimal cost and maximum profit. However, it is highly uncertain whether this scenario will actually unfold.

Theocracy Won’t Fall Easily

Foreign aggression may motivate fervent and even moderately passionate supporters of the theocracy to rally behind the regime, estimated at around 20 million people. Hardliners could seize key levers of power. Rural support is strong, and Iran remains predominantly rural. Without control over rural areas, captured cities by insurgents mean little.

The regime is well-organized with contingency plans. For every leadership position, about ten backup officials are ready. Recent assassinations have not altered power. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated today on state TV that the new leadership council has started functioning, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a new Supreme Leader will be elected “in a day or two.”

Americans can control the skies over Iran, but without boots on the ground, Islamists remain in power unless the Iranian people overthrow them. Trump does not plan a ground invasion; Iran’s geography makes it practically unconquerable. It is a country of about 93 million people and 1.6 million square kilometers—an invasion is off the table.

Clearly, the Americans and Israelis expected Iran’s regime to collapse within days, or at most one to two weeks. If it does not, do they have a Plan B? They can bomb, fire missiles, and deploy drones, but until Iranians themselves rebel, they can do nothing. Iran possesses over three thousand ballistic missiles capable of striking enemies. Greater problems could arise if chaos in Iran spreads regionally, which is already happening in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A new regional war may emerge, potentially along Sunni-Shiite lines, with very dangerous consequences. Much of the Islamic world despises Israel, potentially drawing in Turkey, which has supported Tehran.

The dangerous spiral of disaster is spinning fast, and if it is not halted soon, the outlook is grim.

© Eurasia Review