The Unthinkable Off-Ramp

In the high-stakes crucible of the ongoing West Asia conflict, military strategists are assuredly gaming out countless scenarios behind closed doors. They will be modelling overwhelming conventional assaults, protracted attritional warfare, and even the terrifying spectre of nuclear escalation. Yet there is one scenario that remains conspicuously under-examined in current, behind-the-scenes war games, despite its historical plausibility: the sudden, simultaneous removal of the two primary architects of the current escalation.

The absence of this scenario from publicly whispered strategic planning is striking, given that the assumptions underpinning the current approach have already proven flawed. Both the United States and Israel made a fatal miscalculation by assuming that decapitation strikes and assassinations of Iran’s top leadership would swiftly lead to regime change, paving the way for a staunchly pro-Western government in Tehran. The opposite has occurred. Even Iranians indifferent or hostile to their own government have rallied behind the leadership, as internal unity is often best fostered by the spectre of external aggression.

A basic understanding of the Persian Weltanschauung would have predicted this outcome. Iranians would rather die than capitulate to what they collectively call the “Epstein Gang.” They are proud heirs to a 4,000-year-old civilisation, and they are not inclined to play second fiddle to two upstart nations founded in 1776 and 1948, respectively. Incidentally, both nations have been waging unremitting wars of extermination since their respective inceptions.

To paraphrase an observation from former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, “It may be dangerous to be the enemy of Israel and America, but to be their friend is fatal.” The Gulf Arab states are learning this bitter lesson in the most incendiary manner. In fact, nations that keep as far away from both entities as possible, apart from trade, are actually some of the most liveable countries on Earth. And that is an irrefutable fact. 

Furthermore, each decapitation strike carries an additional, compounding risk. The removal of one leader in Tehran may only clear the path for a more radicalised successor who may have no qualms about acquiring a nuclear deterrent and long-range ballistic missiles currently capped at around 2,000 kilometres. The very strategy designed to prevent........

© Eurasia Review