Few geographic points in the world are as strategically important to the global economy as the Strait of Hormuz. In 2026, escalating military confrontation in the Gulf has transformed this narrow maritime passage from a geopolitical pressure point into a major fault line in the global energy system. Roughly 20–21 million barrels of oil per day—about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade—normally passes through this corridor. The strait is also the primary export route for the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter, Qatar. 

Recent naval incidents, missile exchanges and maritime security threats connected to tensions involving Iran and Western naval forces have severely disrupted tanker traffic. Shipping companies are rerouting vessels and insurers are raising war-risk premiums, leaving the strait operating far below normal capacity. For energy-importing economies such as Türkiye, such disruptions quickly translate into higher energy import costs, inflationary pressures and additional current-account risks. Yet the story does not end with vulnerability. Paradoxically, the same geopolitical risks threatening global energy flows may also create long-term strategic opportunities for Türkiye.

THE EMERGENCE OF A WAR OF ATTRITION IN THE GULF

What initially appeared to be a short-term regional escalation now increasingly resembles a prolonged war of attrition in the Gulf. Instead of a decisive military confrontation, the conflict is unfolding through intermittent missile and drone strikes, maritime harassment, cyber operations targeting energy infrastructure and economic pressure on shipping and insurance markets. 

Such conflicts can persist for months or even years without a formal declaration of war. For Gulf........

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