The conflict in West Asia is already having global reverberations. The firepower on display on all sides is formidable, increasing casualties and limiting travel, expatriate mobility and trade. The takedown of refineries and energy assets will severely impact the global energy flows. Prices of crude oil and natural gas have already increased as energy flows through the Straits of Hormuz have been affected. Countries across the world are watching nervously. Our experts, Security Fellow Lt. General Narasimhan and Energy Fellow Amit Bhandari, discuss the ongoing West Asian conflict, how it will pan out, and its implications for India.

Q: How will the conflict evolve from this point? How long is it likely to last?

A: This conflict was a long time coming. First, the U.S. and Israel went after Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025, but it was clear that Iran had moved its nuclear infrastructure somewhere safe, and the attacks did not actually achieve what they had sought to. Second, there were already negotiations going on with Iran to sort out the issues of its nuclear programme – and no progress was made even in the last meeting, which was at the end of February. For the U.S. and Israel, it seems to have tilted the balance in favour of launching an offensive. But clearly the U.S. has been preparing for this conflict for almost two or three months now. This is visible by the fact that almost 50% of deployable fighter aircraft have been moved to this theatre, along with aircraft carrier groups and a number of other ships. So the conflict was expected.

Now that it has begun, what happens next? Iran has approximately 2,000 to 2,500 missiles – they have launched only a few so far, 70-100 missiles at the six or seven Gulf countries, which can beat the air defence of that country.

The initial U.S.-Israel attack has wiped out Iran’s leadership – but they had planned for this, and the plans have been implemented. In this case, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) gets split into 31 autonomous units – one for Tehran and the other 30 for each of the provinces. Each of these units can make their own decisions, pick their own targets and do what they have to do. This mosaic defence plan has multiple parts to it, including decentralised decision-making. In case of an attack on Iran, they are to adopt defence in depth, meaning layered defences.

The third part is survivability over winning. Finally, they will also go into asymmetric or guerrilla warfare in case of an invasion by the U.S. and Israel – something that has happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. Their objective is to cause as much damage as they can to the U.S. and Israel.

If the conflict stops at missiles and aerial bombing, it should end within a week or two. But if it goes into an invasion and asymmetric guerrilla warfare situation, there is no limit to how long it can go on for.

Q: Iran has used drones and missiles on a large scale in the conflict so far. Are there any lessons for India from this conflict, especially given our own experience during Operation Sindoor last year? Also, how is the evolution of armed conflicts in the drone era, as witnessed in the past three or four conflicts?

A: The large-scale use of drones started during the Azerbaijan-Armenian conflict. It was then used in Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, India-Pakistan, and now this West Asia war.

Q: What are the wider geopolitical implications of the conflict, especially for China and Russia? Are there any beneficiaries of this conflict?

A: The first beneficiary of this conflict is of course, Israel. The White House did not expect any kind of a threat from Iran over the next decade. If Iran gets weakened in some form, the first beneficiary is Israel. Second, the U.S. can always boast about regime change and having caused them damage. But they will not be able to take out Iran’s nuclear deterrent.

For China, Iran is a source of oil – China kept importing oil from Iran even during the sanctions period. Chinese ships would switch off their transponders while loading up on Iranian oil in the Gulf. They may have to source this oil from other areas such as Russia. So far, China has made just anodyne statements about a need to end violence.

China will just sit this conflict out, because in any case, either the U.S., Israel, or Iran will be weakened – China will benefit from any or all of this.

India, too, has made anodyne statements. While India seems to have picked a side in the conflict, there hasn’t been any physical support. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Israel just before the conflict began. There is a parallel to that – Russia’s President Putin went to China at the start of the Winter Olympics in February 2022 before the Ukraine conflict began.

Q: What has been the impact of this conflict on the energy space?

A: The perception in the energy markets is that this will be a short conflict, which may be over in two or four weeks. We know that 20% of the global oil supply passes through the Straits of Hormuz, and traffic has reduced considerably in the past few days. Hypothetically, if the traffic were to stop for two or four weeks, or longer, there would be widespread panic in the energy markets. That hasn’t happened – the price for Brent is still $78-79/barrel. If there is a serious concern about the stoppage of traffic in the straits, the price would be far higher.

Iran has started to target a number of energy installations – a Saudi refinery, a Kuwaiti refinery, and a UAE oil platform. The attacks on oil infrastructure are partly an attempt to create panic amongst other countries. Oil buyers don’t worry about where they import oil from – West Asia or somewhere else. If the price of oil goes up, it goes up for everyone. So it may be an attempt to induce a larger panic in the global community so that some kind of a negotiated settlement or off-ramp could be created.

Finally, Russia is going to be one of the beneficiaries of the conflict, as it is the second-largest exporter of oil in the world. At this point in time, when there is a concern around a large source of supply, the world economy cannot have another big supplier being pushed out of the marketplace completely.

Lt Gen S L Narasimhan is the Adjunct Distinguished Fellow for China and National Security Studies at Gateway House.

Amit Bhandari is the Senior Fellow on Energy, Investment and Connectivity. 

Source: This article was written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations.

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