The conflict in West Asia is already having global reverberations. The firepower on display on all sides is formidable, increasing casualties and limiting travel, expatriate mobility and trade. The takedown of refineries and energy assets will severely impact the global energy flows. Prices of crude oil and natural gas have already increased as energy flows through the Straits of Hormuz have been affected. Countries across the world are watching nervously. Our experts, Security Fellow Lt. General Narasimhan and Energy Fellow Amit Bhandari, discuss the ongoing West Asian conflict, how it will pan out, and its implications for India.

Q: How will the conflict evolve from this point? How long is it likely to last?

A: This conflict was a long time coming. First, the U.S. and Israel went after Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025, but it was clear that Iran had moved its nuclear infrastructure somewhere safe, and the attacks did not actually achieve what they had sought to. Second, there were already negotiations going on with Iran to sort out the issues of its nuclear programme – and no progress was made even in the last meeting, which was at the end of February. For the U.S. and Israel, it seems to have tilted the balance in favour of launching an offensive. But clearly the U.S. has been preparing for this conflict for almost two or three months now. This is visible by the fact that almost 50% of deployable fighter aircraft have been moved to this theatre, along with aircraft carrier groups and a number of other ships. So the conflict was expected.

Now that it has begun, what happens next? Iran has approximately........

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