Ethiopia’s Red Sea strategy has once again returned to the forefront of its foreign policy discourse, with renewed emphasis on securing direct access to the sea, an ambition revived by the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

With rhetoric framing sea access as “existential” and deeply tied to Ethiopia’s historical identity, the country is attempting to redefine its geopolitical posture through initiatives such as the controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. However, despite the fanfare, this so-called strategy is more likely to follow the path of its predecessors: failure. The reasons are multifaceted, ranging from geopolitical resistance, international legal constraints, internal instability, economic limitations, and the broader militarized context of the Red Sea. Collectively, these factors render the Red Sea strategy a stillborn vision, doomed to remain aspirational rather than actionable.

At the core of the issue is the sheer geopolitical resistance Ethiopia faces from its immediate neighbors and beyond. Somalia has rejected outright the deal Ethiopia signed with Somaliland, viewing it as a direct violation of its territorial integrity. The African Union, United Nations, and most international actors recognize Somaliland as part of Somalia, making Ethiopia’s agreement not only controversial but legally dubious. Ethiopia’s claim to coastal access through such arrangements is built on sand, lacking the legitimacy required for a durable strategy. Eritrea, another key neighbor with historical ties to Ethiopia’s former coastline, remains wary and deeply hostile to any indication that Addis Ababa may seek........

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