“When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.” – Frédéric Bastiat

What begins with tariffs may end with tanks. The escalation of economic hostilities between the United States and China—a tit-for-tat trade war involving hundreds of billions in goods—carries echoes of a darker past. History reminds us that prolonged economic aggression among nations, especially great powers, often metastasises into political and even military confrontation. The current trajectory of decoupling, protectionism, and nationalist rhetoric may not lead directly to war. But to ignore the historical pattern is to court catastrophe.

Donald Trump once declared that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” That sentiment has now outlived his presidency but not its consequences. Under both Trump and Biden, Washington has shown remarkable bipartisan resolve in pursuing trade restrictions against Beijing—from punitive tariffs to semiconductor export bans and restrictions on Chinese tech firms. China, for its part, has responded in kind, manipulating the value of its currency, weaponising its vast domestic market, and deepening state-led industrial policy. Each side now regards the other as an economic adversary to be constrained rather than engaged.

This is not merely a quarrel over deficits and intellectual property. It is a comprehensive economic disengagement with global ramifications. And while both Washington and Beijing continue to profess their commitment to open trade in principle, their policies in practice suggest otherwise. The rhetoric is of decoupling; the reality is of confrontation.

The mechanics of trade war are now familiar. In 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 25% on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports, with subsequent rounds escalating the figure to $360 billion. China retaliated on goods worth over $110 billion. The........

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