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Donald Trump says the United States is working on a “massive” agreement to purchase potash from Belarus at substantially lower prices than it currently pays Canada. The announcement was quickly dismissed by some Canadian observers as economically unrealistic. That reaction may be premature.

CHARLEBOIS: Trump’s Belarus potash gambit: Canada should stop laughing Back to video

Belarus cannot immediately replace Canadian potash, and it is far from clear that its product could be delivered to American farmers more cheaply. But the proposal should still be taken seriously. The United States does not need Belarus to replace Canada completely. It only needs another credible supplier to reduce its dependence on Saskatchewan and strengthen its negotiating position.

Canada currently supplies approximately four-fifths of American potash imports. Saskatchewan’s advantages are considerable: vast reserves, established mines, dependable production and direct railway access to the American Midwest.

Nevertheless, dominant market positions are rarely permanent.

In March, the U.S. Treasury removed Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company from its sanctions list. American companies can now legally purchase Belarusian potash, and limited shipments have reportedly resumed.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said that most current production is already committed under existing contracts. That statement has sometimes been interpreted as evidence that Trump’s proposed agreement is impossible.

It means something less dramatic: Belarus has limited uncommitted production........

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