On 30 July 2026 Spanish authorities estimated that more than 50,000 people had crossed irregularly from Morocco into Ceuta. By 3 August, Spain said that about 69,500 had returned and 3,000 to 5,000 remained. Together those figures imply between 72,500 and 74,500 arrivals excluding deaths, although no reconciled total had been published. The toll was also unsettled: Reuters reported 72 deaths on the Spanish side and 11 on the Moroccan side; La Nación reported 88 bodies in Ceuta’s improvised morgue, plus the eleven recovered by Morocco. In May 2021, close to 8,000 entered over two days. July was on another scale. The sharpest response came from Rome, as European governments quarrelled before the origin of the shock or the risk of onward movement was clear.

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The causes remain disputed. Reuters traced the mobilisation to online videos, misleading readings of a court ruling, economic hardship and calm seas; specialists asked whether Moroccan authorities had looked the other way. A Moroccan parliamentary figure denied political motive, while Madrid called bilateral relations excellent. On 3 August, an El País and Cadena SER account relayed by Reuters said Spanish intelligence believed Morocco had not planned the crossing but had allowed it and benefited politically. The account relied on unidentified officials. A separate report said intelligence had flagged a possible mass entry around Throne Day. Grande-Marlaska said he received no CNI warning; Defence would not discuss classified reports. Morocco’s Interior Ministry blamed misinformation, trafficking and misreadings of the ruling, without addressing deliberate non-prevention. Prevention remains open. The public record does not show that Morocco engineered the flow to coerce Spain.

September 2024 offers a limited comparison. Faced with similar calls, Moroccan police blocked hundreds of people, arrested sixty and reported preventing over 11,300 attempts the previous month. In July 2026 tens of thousands reached the border. Riot police used batons and tear gas, and water cannon trucks were deployed, but the frontier was overwhelmed. Monthly prevention and containing tens of thousands in one night are different tasks. The comparison asks why prevention failed; it does not answer it.

The online claims distorted judgment 814/2026, of 29 June. It held that summary rejection at the Ceuta and Melilla........

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