This article was shortlisted as part of the 2025 E-International Relations Article Award, sponsored by Edinburgh University Press, Polity, Sage, Bloomsbury, Manchester University Press, Palgrave Macmillan and Bristol University Press.

Technological shifts have always reshaped international relations. The nuclear revolution redefined the global order after 1945, splitting the world into deterrence-based camps and spurring the creation of arms control treaties. The digital revolution of the late twentieth century brought both the promise of connectivity and the peril of cyber vulnerabilities, forcing states to rethink sovereignty in cyberspace. Artificial intelligence today raises questions of ethics, surveillance, and competitive advantage, pressing policymakers to create frameworks that balance innovation and restraint. Now, a new frontier is opening: the second quantum revolution.

Quantum technologies, computing, communication, and sensing are no longer confined to experimental physics labs. They are being branded as strategic assets, pursued with intensity by the United States, China, the European Union, India, Japan, and others. Their potential is staggering. Quantum computers could simulate chemical interactions with unprecedented accuracy, accelerating drug discovery and green energy solutions. Quantum sensors could map underground resources or detect submarines with levels of precision beyond classical devices. Quantum communications promise theoretically unbreakable cryptography, relying on the fundamental properties of entanglement. Yet alongside these breakthroughs lie equally disruptive risks. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could undermine the cryptographic backbone of modern digital life, threatening banking systems, secure communications, and military command structures (Mosca 2018).

The stakes are therefore not simply scientific but geopolitical. Governments see quantum not just as a new tool of innovation but as a lever of power. The metaphor of a ‘quantum race’ has entered policy discussions, evoking Cold War imagery of nuclear competition. But unlike nuclear weapons, which exploded into international consciousness in 1945 with devastating clarity, quantum technologies are developing incrementally, in laboratories and corporate research centres, with uneven visibility and uncertain timelines. This ambiguity creates both danger and opportunity. The danger is that mistrust and secrecy could accelerate an arms race dynamic, where states hoard breakthroughs and fear adversaries’ hidden progress. The opportunity is that, because quantum remains at an early stage, there is still time to craft governance frameworks before its most destabilising impacts unfold (Just Security 2024).

This article argues that the quantum race represents a profound challenge to global security governance but also a unique window for cooperative action. It begins with a plain-language explanation of quantum principles to ground the discussion for a general audience. It then examines national strategies, focusing on how major powers approach quantum as both opportunity and risk. It explores the security threats in detail, particularly the vulnerability of encryption and the potential for strategic instability. Historical analogies with nuclear, AI, and biotechnology governance provide lessons for how to proceed. Possible scenarios for the quantum future, cooperation, fragmentation, or confrontation, are analysed. Finally, the article proposes a governance agenda rooted in multilateralism, standards, and equity, concluding that the quantum race, if governed wisely, can be transformed from a destabilising competition into a cooperative leap forward for humanity.

Quantum in Plain English

Quantum physics often evokes images of paradox and mystery. Schrödinger’s cat, both alive and dead until observed, is perhaps the most famous metaphor. But the principles behind quantum technologies can be explained without heavy mathematics.

At the heart of quantum computing is the qubit, or quantum bit. Unlike a classical bit, which is either 0 or 1, a qubit can be in a superposition of both states at once. When multiple qubits are entangled, their states become linked such that measuring one instantly influences the other, even across vast distances. This allows quantum computers to explore many possible solutions simultaneously, rather than sequentially, giving them exponential speed-up for certain problems (Shor 1997). A metaphor often used is solving a maze: a classical computer tries each path one by one, while a quantum computer can, in principle, test all paths at once and pick the correct exit.

This power has profound implications. Modern cryptography relies on the difficulty of factoring large prime numbers, a problem that classical computers cannot solve efficiently. In 1994, mathematician Peter Shor developed an algorithm showing that a quantum computer could factor such numbers in polynomial time (Shor 1997). The result was a bombshell: once sufficiently large quantum computers exist, widely used encryption systems like RSA and elliptic curve cryptography will collapse. While no machine today can perform such a calculation at the necessary scale, the theoretical feasibility has spurred intense concern.

Quantum sensing, another branch, uses phenomena like quantum interference and superposition to achieve ultra-precise measurements. These devices could detect submarines by sensing tiny magnetic variations or monitor underground structures by measuring gravitational anomalies. Quantum communication, meanwhile, uses entanglement and photon polarisation to enable secure key exchange. If intercepted, the act of measurement would disturb the quantum state, alerting the sender to eavesdropping.

For non-specialists, the takeaway is this: quantum technologies are not just faster computers. They represent a fundamentally new way of processing, sensing, and communicating information. This novelty explains both the excitement and the anxiety surrounding them.

National Strategies and Geopolitics

Quantum technologies are now a theatre of strategic competition. While collaboration among scientists remains common, governments are increasingly framing quantum as a domain of national security and sovereignty. The strategies of leading actors reveal how the quantum race is shaping global politics.

The United States has combined federal funding with defence priorities. The 2018 National Quantum Initiative Act authorised more than US$1.2 billion in research funding, coordinating across agencies such as the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defence (NIST 2022). The Pentagon views quantum sensing as critical for navigation in GPS-denied environments, while the intelligence community monitors quantum’s potential to undermine cryptography. At the same time, the U.S. leads efforts to develop post-quantum cryptography standards, recognising that defensive measures must accompany offensive research (NIST 2022). The private sector, Google, IBM and Microsoft play a major role, with partnerships blurring the line between commercial innovation and national interest.

China has placed quantum at the heart of its quest for technological self-sufficiency. In 2017, Chinese scientists demonstrated the world’s first satellite-based quantum key distribution using the ‘Micius’ satellite, an achievement hailed as a milestone in secure communications.........

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