THE latest crisis in India-Pakistan relations is the fifth in the past 25 years.

Each crisis has been more complex and involved dangerous ramifications, which made it hard even when tensions eased to put ties back on track and return to any ‘normalcy’. Protracted periods of diplomatic disengagement followed these crises. The bilateral impasse only deepened as, when suspended, formal dialogue was difficult to resume. Little wonder that a once promising peace process advanced through what was called the ‘composite dialogue’ was never revived since it was halted over 12 years ago.

The ongoing crisis has already plunged relations between the nuclear neighbours into a vortex of dangerous confrontation. Tit-for-tat diplomatic measures by both sides, initiated by India, have gone much further than actions taken in past crises. India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty weaponises water and has far-reaching im­­plications even if its immediate impact is limited. Exchange of small-arms fire continues along the Line of Control. The Indian Navy has been cond­u­cting long-range missile drills in the Arabian Sea, obliging Pakistan to intensify its naval activities.

Pakistani officials claim to have credible intelligence that India is preparing to launch a military strike. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statements about inflicting harsh punishment on the attackers and their backers has reinforced the possibility of kinetic action. He has given the army “operational freedom” to decide “the mode, targets and timing” of India’s response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack. War hysteria has also taken hold in India.

The danger of an........

© Dawn