THE world faces heightened uncertainty in 2026 as geopolitical and geo-economic tensions intensify and conflicts persist. With the world appearing more unsettled than at any time since the end of the Cold War, President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ unilateralism will inject more instability into global affairs. The rules-based order, in precipitous decline, will fragment further. Multilateralism will come under greater stress. Western dominance will decline even though the US-led West will continue to exert significant influence in the international system. China’s global power and role will increase. Volatility will be a pronounced feature of the fractured international landscape. A more multipolar world will see middle powers play a growing role in shaping geopolitics and acting assertively.

Six major trends will shape world affairs in the coming year, although this of course is not an exhaustive list. The first is a shifting geopolitical landscape with changing alignments, eroding rules and a high degree of unpredictability. Geopolitical shifts will principally be determined by how the situation evolves in the Middle East and Ukraine, the course of US-China relations and adjustments countries make in response to the trade war unleashed by Trump.

With global norms being upended by Trump’s disruptive policies and other powers showing similar disregard, the drift to what some call a ‘no-rules world’ will become more evident. In its assessment of top risks for 2026, Control Risks, a London-based consultancy firm, forecasts a world in which established rules will fade and even break down. This will make international relatio­nships more transactional and situational.........

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