IFI LOANS are an opiate. Water managers will pursue any mega project if financing is available — especially when repayment comes from taxpayers and not project performance. The failed Neelum-Jhelum project is the latest example. As India violates the Indus Waters Treaty, questionable ‘benchmarks’ surface — Pakistan’s storage is “below recommended levels” and more dams must be built in response. New storage would unlock IFI loans. But would it offset the loss of the treaty? The basic question is: what did Pakistan actually gain from the IWT — and what remains to be lost?

The crisis began in 1948, when India shut off irrigation canals to Pakistan. It ended in 1960, when the IWT was signed. India’s position never wavered: the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — the eastern rivers — are India’s. Pakistan was told to replace pre-Partition dependence on them with water from the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — the western rivers — before India cut ‘its’ rivers off entirely. A question not answered by the IWT is: what did Pakistan receive that would be forfeited if the treaty disappeared? The text is unambiguous on India’s gains. Exclusive rights to the eastern rivers. Zero share for Pakistan. No deviation from the line India drew on........

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