PAKISTAN’S role in brokering the first direct US-Iran talks since 1979 has generated immense global goodwill. Can Islamabad strategically deploy this diplomatic credibility? Peace between the nuclear-armed Pakistan and India in South Asia is no less vital than Middle East stability and hinges on reviving cooperation on the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Such initiatives translate Pakistan’s diplomatic capital into structural stability — foundational to regional security and our shared capacity to manage the accelerating climate risks to the subcontinent. By focusing on water, a domain of acute shared vulnerability, Islamabad can address areas where the cost of non-cooperation hits ordinary populations hardest, and where political barriers to progress are lower than in traditional security matters.

The treaty’s effective suspension, driven by India’s withdrawal from treaty mechanisms after the April 2025 Pahalgam attack and Pakistan’s unilateral filing at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, has paralysed the Indus basin’s institutional machinery. This breakdown has occurred at the worst possible moment, leaving both nations without a functional framework to manage the increased frequency of transboundary climatic events and disasters.

The 2025 floods were a compound event. Record heatwaves first saturated the glaciers and atmosphere, then an early and intense monsoon hit river systems already at capacity. The transboundary dimension is the sharpest new argument. India’s opening of dam gates after reservoirs reached full capacity caused sudden downstream surges. Crucially, this happened after the IWT’s unilateral suspension. Instead of using the Permanent Indus Commission as stipulated in the IWT, India informed Pakistan of the floods through........

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