Gold dives to 4-month low as inflation pressures lift rate hike bets

Gold slid more than eight per cent on Monday to hit its lowest level in four months, after logging its biggest weekly loss in about 43 years last week, as an escalating Middle East conflict stoked inflation concerns and raised expectations of higher global interest rates.

Spot gold declined 6.3pc to $4,203.21 per ounce by 07:57 GMT (12:57pm PKT), extending losses into a ninth straight session. It had shed more than 8pc to $4,097.99 earlier in the session to its lowest level since November 24.

The metal dropped more than 10pc last week, its steepest weekly loss since February 1983, and has also retreated about 25pc from its record peak of $5,594.82 an ounce reached on January 29.

US gold futures for April delivery dropped 8.1pc to $4,205.10.

“With the Iranian conflict into its fourth week, and oil prices hanging around the $100 level, expectations have pivoted from rate cuts to potential rate hikes, which have tarnished gold’s appeal from a yield point of view,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst, KCM Trade.

Iran said on Sunday it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours in retaliation if US President Donald Trump followed through with his threat to hit Iran’s electricity grid.

Asian shares fell, and oil prices stayed above $110 a barrel.

“Gold’s high liquidity appears to be hurting it during this risk-off period. Downturns in stock markets are leading to gold portions being closed to cover margin calls on other assets,” Waterer said.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude elevated, stoking inflation fears by pushing up transport and manufacturing costs. While rising inflation typically boosts gold’s appeal as a hedge, high rates curb demand for the non-yielding asset.

“A reinforced shift from safe-haven allocation towards macro-driven positioning could skew risks further to the downside, as a firmer US dollar and the receding probability of the Fed easing dominate the narrative,” said BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

Market pricing for a US Federal Reserve rate hike this year has shot up, with rate futures showing the US central bank is more likely to raise interest rates than cut them by the end of 2026, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Other precious metals also declined sharply, with spot silver declining 6.1pc to $63.66 per ounce and platinum slipping 6.4pc to $1,799.25. Both metals earlier hit their lowest levels since mid-December.

Palladium shed 3.6pc to $1,352.75.

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