The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections for Pakistan suggest that the immediate risk of economic free fall has eased but the country remains locked into a narrow stabilisation path marked by weak growth, heavy debt and limited relief for households.

Projections by the Fund, released early on Tuesday alongside the statement announcing a fresh disbursement of around $1.2 billion to Pakistan, showed that the country’s economic growth was projected to inch up from 2.6 per cent in FY2024 to 3.2pc by FY2026, a pace that barely matches population growth in the country of 240.5 million people.

With a per capita income of $1,677, this trajectory points more to economic containment than recovery.

Pakistan’s population also continues to grow at a high pace, with mid-2025 official figures citing 2.55pc, while World Bank data points to 1.8–1.9pc. Though slightly lower than past peaks, the rate remains a significant development challenge.

Pakistan, however, appears to have made the most striking turnaround in inflation. After averaging 23.4pc in FY2024, consumer prices are estimated to have fallen sharply to 4.5pc in FY2025, and projected to rise to 6.3pc in FY2026.

End-period inflation is also projected to ease from 12.6pc in FY2024 to 3.2pc in FY2025, before climbing to 8.9pc in FY2026. The disinflation........

© Dawn Business