For nearly three decades, Pakistan operated within a global economic order that quietly rewarded its weaknesses. Cheap labour compensated for low productivity, loose regulation substituted for institutional strength, and periodic incentives masked the absence of long-term industrial planning. The assumption was simple and politically convenient: as long as Pakistan remained cost-competitive, global demand would eventually return. This belief shaped export policy, energy pricing, labour regulation, and macroeconomic narratives. It worked just enough to prevent collapse, but never enough to enable transformation. Today, that assumption has expired. Cheap globalisation is over, and Pakistan’s economic playbook, built entirely around it, has lost relevance in a world that now values resilience over price and predictability over incentives.

The era of cheap globalisation, which peaked between the late 1990s and mid-2010s, was defined by a particular alignment of global conditions. Capital was abundant and impatient, chasing returns across emerging markets with limited concern for governance depth. Supply chains prioritised cost minimisation, tolerating long distances, regulatory gaps, and political risk as long as margins were protected. Labour arbitrage mattered more than productivity, allowing countries to compete simply by being cheaper than the next alternative. Pakistan’s economic model fitted neatly into this framework, relying on low wages, intermittent energy subsidies, and tolerance for informality to remain marginally competitive.

That world began eroding well before the pandemic, but the decisive rupture came afterwards. COVID-19 exposed the fragility of long, single-source supply chains and the hidden costs of excessive dependence on distant suppliers. The Russia-Ukraine war reintroduced geopolitics as a permanent determinant of trade and energy flows. Conflicts in the Middle East disrupted shipping lanes, raised insurance premiums, and stretched delivery timelines. At the same time, climate policy shifted from........

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