The GOP’s first-ever midterm convention needed a Democrat. The two-night production at the American Airlines Center in Dallas in early September was built around the case that the Democratic Party has been captured by socialism, and the organizers wanted someone from inside the party to help make it. Naturally, John Fetterman, the glowering senator from Pennsylvania who had gone from progressive celebrity to his party’s biggest headache, was at the top of their list.

Convinced by Dave McCormick, Pennsylvania’s Republican senator and one of his few friends in Washington, Fetterman recorded a 64-second unscripted video outside the steel mill in Braddock, where he served as mayor for 13 years, that aired at the convention. He called himself “a commonsense Democrat” who would “reject the extremes and socialism” and promised to work with Trump to protect Pennsylvania steel.

Fetterman’s appearance revived a question that has followed him through his ever-growing estrangement from much of the Democratic Party: Was he preparing to leave it altogether? “I’m a lifelong Democrat who votes overwhelmingly with my party,” he said afterward, adding that if Democrats took control of the Senate in November, “I will still be the 51st vote that I ran on.” But the speculation persisted, amplified by the creation of an X account by anonymous former staffers who threatened to divulge damning details about the way Fetterman runs his office. By last week, Fetterman was shouting at reporters in the Capitol, “I’m not going to be a Republican! Why can’t you guys just wait till the midterms? And if I turn a Republican, then I’ll be a liar.” The same day, the Washington Examiner reported that Fetterman had attended a retreat at the Murdoch family ranch in Montana in July.

Tré Easton, Fetterman’s former legislative director, takes the senator at his word about his Democratic identity. “I haven’t bought into the party-switching thing,” Easton told me. And why would Fetterman switch? If Democrats end up with a 51-49 margin after the midterms, “he is the most powerful Democrat in the Senate if he stays a Democrat.” And if he switches? “There goes all of his novelty.” Last month, a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll found that just........

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