In a blockbuster announcement last week, the United Arab Emirates announced that it would leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on May 1. The UAE has been a member of the oil cartel since the country was founded in 1971, but in recent years, it has grown frustrated with OPEC quotas to produce less in order to keep prices high enough to appease Saudi Arabia, by far OPEC’s largest producer. Meanwhile, blowback from the war on Iran — the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Dubai and Abu Dhabi — has hastened the Emirates’ slow economic pivot toward the U.S. and Israel.

Joe DeLaura, an energy specialist at the Dutch multinational Rabobank, says the UAE’s split from OPEC is more than just about the price of a barrel of oil — and that its effects will be far-reaching. I spoke with him about the bigger factors that influenced this breakup and what it means for the splintering international order.

Was this move broadcast in advance or did it come as a surprise to the people in your world?If you look at what was going on in Sudan and in Yemen, the Saudis and the UAE were basically fighting proxy wars. It all almost got to be a hot war for a very brief second. And now the fact that the UAE can’t sell their oil — I think they’re just trying to say they want to hitch their ride to a bigger horse.

I was looking at Federal Reserve data for the breakeven price of oil for the UAE and for Saudi Arabia — the minimum price required to cover the cost of production. The UAE’s number is a lot less than the Saudis’. Is their motivation to leave OPEC as simple as wanting to........

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