On prediction markets, there are many ways you can make or lose money on America’s foreign wars. There’s been plenty of demand lately. Before the U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro, users, including people with suspiciously accurate information, were putting money on how long he might be in power or whether there might be an invasion of Venezuela. Last week, before the U.S. and Israel initiated massive strikes on Iran, killing Ali Khamenei and numerous other leaders, hundreds of millions of dollars had been bet on — or, technically speaking, invested in — different outcomes for Iran’s future.

You can currently bet on the exact date that the Strait of Hormuz might close, or the date of a future cease-fire; you can put money on an arrival date for exiled opposition leader Reza Pahlavi; and if you have a hunch about if or when the U.S. will seize an Iranian oil tanker, that market is available, too. There are plenty of reasons you might think to do this. Perhaps you’re a keen observer of American foreign relations, or you believe you have unusually good instincts about the president’s decision-making process. Maybe you know a lot of people in government, or the military, and you’re picking up on some strange patterns or vibes.

Or maybe — just maybe — you’re privy to something specific and know a sure thing when you see it. It doesn’t look like that didn’t happen last week on the Donald Trump Jr.–advised platform Polymarket:

An account trading under the username “Magamyman” made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.

An account trading under the username “Magamyman” made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.

This strategy doesn’t just apply to wars, of course. There are, for example, many ways you can make or lose money on the YouTuber MrBeast, a.k.a. Jimmy Donaldson. You can put money on whether he’ll be married this year, reach 500 million subscribers, or donate money to East Carolina University. You can also buy into date ranges for a Beast Industries IPO or the specific length of his next video. When his next video comes out, 15 different “mention” markets will resolve one way or the other. Did he use the words “win,” “money,” “insane,” or “subscribe”? How about “prize” or “billion” or “Saudi Arabia”?

Similarly, if you have good reason to believe that MrBeast will talk about Saudi Arabia in his next video — the likelihood of which is currently trading at around 7 percent — you could make some money. Maybe you’ve read about Beast Land, the Saudi Arabian theme park, and think there’s a reason he might address it, or have a strong hunch and a track record of vibing with MrBeast’s content-release schedule. Or maybe you know exactly what’s going to be in the next video, and how long it is, because you’re one of the people who helped make it, which also allegedly happened recently.

The booming prediction-market industry isn’t known for being overly precious about ethics and appearances, but it is concerned about seeming overtly rigged, which is an increasingly common belief among not just skeptical outsiders but also traders themselves. So platforms are finally beginning to take some action that, in theory, may discourage insider betting. Alleged insider bets on the Iran strike and the metadata on Jimmy Donaldson’s next video obviously differ in importance, but they’re alike in kind, which is why prediction markets are doing something about them. Well, one of them. No, not that one:

The … case involved trading in markets on a popular YouTube streamer’s videos. Our........

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