In the game plan most Republicans envisioned for 2026, message discipline and coordinated action were very important. The party, with strong agreement from its president, was determined to pull a big upset in November by hanging on to control of both congressional chambers, which would be a significant historical anomaly. And by the end of 2025, it was abundantly clear that the keys to the kingdom in the midterms would be the success or failure of GOP efforts to keep the voters who went with them in 2024 out of frustration over the cost of living during the Biden administration. Without much question, the one major “affordability” accomplishment that Trump and his congressional allies could boast of was the middle-class tax cuts nestled between the huge goodies for the wealthy and the low-income benefit cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025.

So it’s alarming for Republicans that they are talking about so many other things right now, as Politico Playbook notes:

President Donald Trump and Republicans had this week highlighted as a crucial moment for the midterms campaign. April 15 should have marked the perfect opportunity for Trump and the GOP to highlight the (largely very popular) tax cuts delivered via the One Big Beautiful Bill last year. Hill Republicans have a big event planned Wednesday, before Trump hits the campaign trail in Nevada and Arizona. What could go wrong?Quite a lot, actually: Trump’s “no tax on tips” PR stunt with a DoorDash employee yesterday was, of course, completely overshadowed by his jaw-dropping attack on the Pope and the furor over his AI-Jesus meme. And in truth it’s going to be hard for Republicans to land any cost-of-living messaging right now, given the economic storm clouds caused by the president’s war on Iran.

President Donald Trump and Republicans had this week highlighted as a crucial moment for the midterms campaign. April 15 should have marked the perfect opportunity for Trump and the GOP to highlight the (largely very popular) tax cuts delivered via the One Big Beautiful Bill last year. Hill Republicans have a big event planned Wednesday, before Trump hits the campaign trail in Nevada and Arizona. What could go wrong?

Quite a lot, actually: Trump’s “no tax on tips” PR stunt with a DoorDash employee yesterday was, of course, completely overshadowed by his jaw-dropping attack on the Pope and the furor over his AI-Jesus meme. And in truth it’s going to be hard for Republicans to land any cost-of-living messaging right now, given the economic storm clouds caused by the president’s war on Iran.

That take actually underestimates the number of distractions from “affordability” that the president and his party have created for themselves. Front and center, of course, is a war of choice with no clear objectives and no end in sight that is enormously exacerbating economic fears. Meanwhile, much of the MAGA movement remains maniacally focused on ensuring that Trump’s mass-deportation program — never that popular to begin with, and increasingly unpopular this year — continues at the highest possible velocity and the lowest feasible restraints on the cruelty and violence deemed a useful deterrent to illegal immigrants. Indeed, House and Senate Republicans are currently stuck in an interminable debate over how, exactly, to ensure ICE and the Border Patrol are stuffed with new no-strings funding well into the future, a battle that is blocking more politically useful activity.

We’ll likely find out this week or next whether the GOP can get itself out of this self-destructive rut. With Trump’s backing, Senate Republicans are planning a second budget-reconciliation measure that can pass without Democratic support and is not vulnerable to a filibuster. But unlike the Big Beautiful Bill Act, this one won’t be big at all, as Politico explains:

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Monday he would pursue an “anorexic” bill narrowly focused on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol. Republicans hope that will allow them to skip months of agonizing infighting — as they endured before enacting last year’s tax-cuts-focused megabill. …Still, some agony looms.Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) insisted Monday on spending cuts to offset the new enforcement funding. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said he wants to include money for the military and other GOP priorities. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) argued parts of a hot-button GOP elections bill should be in the mix. And across the Capitol, the House’s right flank insisted Republicans fund all of DHS through the party-line process — not just ICE and Border Patrol.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Monday he would pursue an “anorexic” bill narrowly focused on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol. Republicans hope that will allow them to skip months of agonizing infighting — as they endured before enacting last year’s tax-cuts-focused megabill. …

Still, some agony looms.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) insisted Monday on spending cuts to offset the new enforcement funding. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said he wants to include money for the military and other GOP priorities. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) argued parts of a hot-button GOP elections bill should be in the mix. And across the Capitol, the House’s right flank insisted Republicans fund all of DHS through the party-line process — not just ICE and Border Patrol.

If Thune gives in to right-wing demands to grow the Beautiful Bill into controversial areas like Iran War funding, election ID laws, or safety-net cuts advertised as “anti-fraud” measures, there will be an unstoppable tide of add-ons that will slow the process down immensely and risk failure of the entire enterprise. In particular, a “big” bill will require tons of offsets that will upset swing voters and risk the careers of Republicans in marginal states and districts.

Johnson faces the same pressures multiplied by the leverage the zealots of the House Freedom Caucus have over him thanks to his narrow (currently four seats but soon to be reduced to three seats when a replacement for New Jersey governor Mikie Sherrill is elected later this week) margin of control. The HFC types have been agitating for a long time to make any budget-reconciliation bill large and crazy. But they are also determined to perpetuate the DHS shutdown until all their demands on immigration-enforcement dollars are met, essentially squeezing everything they can get from the puny little hostage represented by non-immigration DHS programs like TSA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard. Once Thune has his ducks in a row on an “anorexic” reconciliation bill, he’ll try to get Johnson to agree that Republicans have made enough progress on engorging ICE and CPB with money until the end of time that the House can release the DHS hostage and end the longest partial government shutdown ever.

Things could go disastrously wrong at every step of this process, which leads back to the crucial role Donald Trump must play to get his party on course for something less than a disastrous midterm election. If MAGA chest-thumpers in either congressional chamber can thwart Thune’s Trump-endorsed effort to end the DHS brouhaha and return the congressional agenda to more fruitful endeavors, the rest of the year could become a legislative wasteland. Trump could end this rebellion instantly, of course. Whether he has the focus to do so is another question. He has already made a hash of the GOP’s 2025 plans over and over again with his terribly timed and totally unnecessary war, with his inability to stage a tactical retreat on mass deportation, and with his constant veers into counterproductive actions. Insulting the pope, attacking U.S. allies, and lashing out at anyone in his party who dares question his election denialism and imperial claims of executive power won’t help Republicans in November and could make Trump a true lame duck for the last two years of his presidency. But it’s unclear if he knows or cares how badly his own cause needs his self-discipline.

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