One of the major narratives that came out of the very poor showing of Republicans in the 2025 elections is that the GOP struggles to win when Donald Trump is not on the ballot. Certainly the president himself shares that belief, as he said on Election Night in no uncertain terms on social media: “‘TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT.”

This was cold comfort for Republicans who understand that Trump isn’t going to be on the ballot in 2026 either. But beyond that, the narrative may not even be true. Polls keep showing that Trump is increasingly a drag on his party and that his weaknesses in the electorate very much resemble the GOP’s weaknesses on November 4.

There’s now little question that the president’s job-approval ratings have been steadily sliding downward for the past couple of months. On September 19, his net approval average at Silver Bulletin was at minus-7.5 percent (44.9 percent approval, 52.4 percent disapproval). On November 19, it was at minus-13.8 percent, which is a new low for his second term. The intensity of his unpopularity is high and rising: 45.3 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, again per the averages at Silver Bulletin.

On particular issues, his net approval remains underwater on all the major categories: immigration (minus-7.1........

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