The Iran war, which has followed a start-stop rhythm since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks in February, is once again on pause. In part because of American shortfalls in munitions like missile interceptors, President Trump has decided to give diplomacy another shot and cease American attacks (which weren’t doing much to reopen the Strait of Hormuz anyway). Iran has, in turn, ceased attacking U.S. assets in the region, though it continues to target regional adversaries and insists that it will only speak to the U.S. through intermediaries like Oman (contrary to Trump’s account that it is desperate for talks). Both sides are likely on a hair trigger, so one provocation — or perhaps even misunderstanding — could mean a resumption of hostilities, as happened in the wake of an ill-defined June 17 cease-fire. Meanwhile, a Houthi blockade against Saudi Arabia is causing more economic complications and muddling the prospect of enduring peace anytime soon, and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is in Washington this week, will no doubt try to persuade Trump to keep up the fight.

To get a read on what this all means for Trump’s war of choice, I spoke with Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher in the Iran and Shi’ite Axis Program at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. Previously, Citrinowicz served as the head of various Israel Defense Intelligence units for over 25 years, including the Iran branch in the Research and Analysis Division.

Many people thought escalation of this conflict was inevitable just a few days ago. Then Trump tapped the brakes over the weekend, and so did Iran. Why do you think that happened?Leave the interceptors aside and that this is an operation under constraint. There are a lot of people surrounding the president who are not in favor of expansion of the war. And I think even more than that, there is an understanding that continuation of the same pattern will not help to change anything in terms of who is controlling the straits. So Trump is pushed to decide whether he wants to go back to negotiations.

Despite everything that’s happening, escalation still is on the table. Trump has two options: He can escalate and maybe something will happen, or he can go back to negotiations — but knowing that at the end of the day, he has to accept the Iranian condition that they will always control the straits. I don’t think he has decided yet, because you have pressure coming from Qatar and Oman saying that maybe they can find something good. But Iran won’t capitulate. They won’t offer him something that he can use to say “we are winning.” They’ll offer him only a return back to their own interpretation of the MOU (Memorandum of Understanding). He said on Monday to Barak Ravid that escalation is still on the table if he doesn’t get what he wants. He won’t get what he wants. He can bomb everything in Iran, but Iran is resilient.

He’s also, I think, constrained by what’s happening in Yemen. The Houthis are going to be relentless and not going to stop attacking the Saudis. I’m not sure that the U.S. is interested in........

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