An expanding body of research highlights the rising importance of class in arrests and incarceration in the United States. This research shouldn’t be read to suggest that ethnoracial disparities have closed or that racial domination is no longer a major driver of hyperincarceration in the United States. However, it should lead to a sharpened focus on the role of class in criminal justice, welfare, and other policy areas.

Here are some key findings from this research:

There have been significant declines in drug arrests among Black individuals but not in other groups, and there are more substantial declines in drug-related imprisonment for Black individuals compared to other racial and ethnic groups. Beckett and Brydolf-Horwitz (2020) document that while racial disparities in drug arrests and incarceration remain considerable, “the main change that has occurred [between 2007 and 2018] is a decline in the Black share of arrests and imprisonments.” They conclude that support for drug policy reform has grown much more in urban areas — including among Black leaders who initially supported the war on drugs, as well as prosecutors and judges — than in white rural areas.

Black men’s lifetime risk of incarceration has decreased. In an update to previous research on the lifetime risk of incarceration, Robey, Massoglia, and Light (2023)highlight that the risk of incarceration for Black men decreased by 44 percent between 1999 and 2019, with declines noted in every state. Through a life table analysis, they estimate that 1 in 5 Black men born in 2001 will be imprisoned, compared to 1 in 3 for the 1981 birth cohort. Although they are careful to mention that these declines could stall or reverse, they also emphasize that rates fell the fastest for young Black men, which may suggest further declines in the future.

Black–White inequality in federal sentencing has narrowed. Light (2021) finds that the average sentencing difference between black and white defendants in US federal courts fell from nearly three years in 2009 to less than six months in 2018. For defendants convicted of drug offenses, the difference fell nearly four years to zero over the same period. He concludes the declines were due to increases in sentences for white defendants, decreases for black defendants, and changes in how prosecutors used mandatory minimum sentences.

There have been considerable declines in racial inequality in the US prison admission rate and increases in class inequality. Compared to the incarceration rate, the prison admission rate — the number of people per 100,000 admitted to prison each year — provides a better measure of recent changes in incarceration.

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