The geographic distribution of Ukraine’s ferrous and non-ferrous output.

With neither political party in the US seeing a benefit in publicizing the fact, last week the Trump administration recommitted the US to the American war in Ukraine, Acting under the cover of the US – Ukraine Mineral Rights deal, negotiators made it about weapons, not minerals. Mr. Trump’s ‘win’ is that under the terms of the deal, the US will now be credited for US weapons supplied to Ukraine. The contract language explaining the mechanisms for doing so is provided below.

While the US-Israeli genocide in Gaza is finding diminishing support inside the US, a plurality of Americans continues to view the war in Ukraine as just. Missing from public comment has been that Donald Trump’s foreign policy is converging with Joe Biden’s foreign policy. Recall, Mr. Biden’s foreign policy team was proclaiming (and here) that nuclear wars are winnable in late 2024, just before they were removed from office.

‘If, after the Effective Date (4/30/2025), the Government of the United States of America delivers new military assistance to the Government of Ukraine in any form (including the donation of weapons systems, ammunition, technology or training), the capital contribution of the U.S. Partner will be deemed to be increased by the assessed value of such military assistance, in accordance with the LP Agreement.’ Section 5, Article 6, US – Ukraine Mineral Rights deal.

As with everything in Trump World, the seeming end-point of the Mineral Rights deal isn’t the end. Mr. Trump apparently understands that he has no leverage in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine because Russia has already prevailed militarily. Skeptical readers are invited to recall the US classified documents leaked by US Airman Texiera in 2022 – 2023. The leaks revealed that Ukraine’s prospects were viewed quite poorly by US officials, even back then.

The problem for Mr. Trump is that the Russians are less prone to taking US pronouncements at face value than the American public is. Mr. Trump’s ploy to pose the US as a mediator in the war, as opposed to the lead antagonist, retains the fiction begun by the Biden administration that the US is a sympathetic bystander. However, the Russians are working from a different set of facts. Since the start of 2022 (or 1990), Russia’s facts have comported with actual outcomes, whereas........

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