Modest Gain, Major Headwinds: The Energy Transition at the Crossroads
Solar array, John F. Kennedy High School. Mt. Angel, Oregon. Photo: Jeffrey St. Clair.
This past November, the United Nations annual Emissions Gap Report found modest progress in the fight against global warming over the past year. Yet there was even a reported catch to that small piece of decent news, namely, the progress is at risk due to the policies of the Trump administration. Overall, the report found that based on current policies and technological trends, the planet should be expected to warm by roughly 2.8 degrees Celsius this century compared to preindustrial times. This could be lowered to 2.3 degrees if every country hits its official targets, which many are struggling to do. Of course, this is the tenth anniversary of the Paris Accords, where countries pledged to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.
A year ago, the Biden administration pledged a 61 percent cut in emissions by 2035. However, emissions have dropped only 17 percent so far and the Trump administration has abandoned the goal. There was a nugget of good news this past March when a majority of electricity produced in the U.S. was produced from non-fossil fuels for the first time but just this past week saw the administration pause five offshore wind projects due to unspecified ‘national security’ concerns (perhaps allegedly about interference with radar signals due to electromagnetic radiation, but needless to say, other countries such as the UK and Denmark have offshore wind with no issues). Roughly 10 percent of U.S. electricity comes from wind, but mostly from onshore turbines in the Great Plains and Texas. As of now, the U.S. has three offshore operational windfarms, all in the northeast. Even if one completely disregarded global warming concerns, it’s a bizarre policy given that, after decades of being flat, electricity usage is growing in the U.S. right along with the power bills of Americans. Residential electricity rates have risen across the U.S. to the tune of over 30 percent on average since 2020 and........
