Drawing by Nathaniel St. Clair

Trump’s proposals to radically transform much of US economic and social policy are being rapidly rolled out during the first week of his administration. How much he succeeds or fails in that transformation will depend on a number of factors. High on the list of such factors is the residue of conditions and policies leftover by the Biden administration—i.e. the legacies of the Biden years. Those legacies will play an important role influencing, and perhaps even determining, how Trump may fare in implementing his plans. So what are the legacy policies and conditions?

The most obvious economic legacy Biden leaves behind is the overhang of the worst inflation since 1980-81. Both a chronic high rate of inflation as well as a general price level that has risen at least 30%-40% over the four years of Biden’s term, when accurately estimated. Inflation has not been tamed and is now rising further—on a base level and rate already too high.

A second economic legacy—a consequence of the above—is that most US households’ real weekly earnings actually declined the past four years. Like the legacy of chronic inflation, that too promises to worsen in the very near future.

Biden’s third economic legacy is that despite a massive fiscal stimulus of $3.6 trillion during his first two years in office, in the second two years the US GDP economic growth rate has been a tepid average annual rise of 2%-2.5%. Thus a mountain of fiscal stimulus has produced a molehill of real economy recovery. More business-investor tax cuts by Trump will not change the tepid US economic growth of the Biden years—just as similar cuts in 2018 by Trump failed to do.

There was no molehill recovery, however, for financial asset wealth accumulation by wealthy investors and billionaires under Biden. In contrast to the anemic real economic growth legacy during his term, Biden’s $3.6 trillion fiscal stimulus of 2021-22 produced a record surge in 2023-24 in financial asset wealth accumulation and the creation of a record number of US billionaires. Income and wealth inequality in America accelerated. It will further under Trump, now on a base of an already record level.

A fifth economic legacy results from all the preceding four: during his four year term, no less than $7.65 trillion in cumulative US budget deficits also defines Biden’s economic legacy. As a consequence of the $7.65 trillion in budget deficits, the US national debt under Biden surged from $26.9 trillion in January 2021 to $36.2 trillion at year end 2024. That in turn resulted in annual interest payments to bondholders of $.95 trillion I 2024 alone.

A sixth economic legacy Biden leaves the US economy is a chronic and rising trade deficit of approximately $1 trillion annually.

These are all ‘legacies’, not just failed policies, since their effects will continue to be felt for years to come—by the US economy in general and especially by its middle and working class households.

But these economic legacies are not the entire story. There are more political legacies Biden leaves his successors. Here are another six political legacies worth noting as well:

In the realm of domestic politics there are at least three: first, during the Biden years, American democracy continued to atrophy and do so in a number of new ways; second, a national crisis in health care services affordability deepened; third, Biden leaves a strategically weakened Democrat Party and ineffective elections contender that will fail to recover for perhaps another decade.

It is in the sphere of geo-political action and US foreign policy, however, that Biden’s most enduring political legacies will leave an indelible imprint on the USA for years to come. These include the costly, lost US proxy war in Ukraine that has irreparably damaged US European allies’ economy; his unconditional support for genocide in Israel and GAZA that has undermined US influence throughout the middle east; and his policies of economic sanctions targeting Russia and China that have accelerated the expansion of the BRICS countries and their challenge to US global economic hegemony that has prevailed for nearly a half century.

Let’s examine each critical legacy in more detail.

Chronic Inflation Rate & High Price Level

As Biden leaves office it is clear that inflation has not been tamed and in fact has recently begun to rise again, leaving a base level and rate rise upon which inflation will almost certainly rise further in 2025 and beyond.

Inflation surged in 2021-22 to a 9% high as estimated by the US government’s official consumer price index (see BLS monthly CPI Reports, September 2021 thru December 2024 ). That rate of increase abated in 2023-24 as global energy costs and commodity prices slowed their rate of increase. However, in closing months of 2024 energy and goods prices in general have begun drifting upward once again. The inflation beast that arose in 2020-21 was tamed only in part and temporarily on his watch and has begun spreading its claws once more.

The official US estimate of the rise in the price level for consumers since 2020 is around 24% But that number obfuscates the far more severe impact on median and other working class households’ take home pay and disposable income. Prices for many basic food staples like bread, milk, eggs, chicken, etc. have risen 30%-40% since 2020. In 2024 a Wall St. Journal survey estimated the most often purchased grocery prices had risen 35% since 2020.

The true cost of shelter (home prices, rents) has risen even more. The prices for homes nation-wide are up 39% according to the Shiller home price index. But households’ mortgage costs—i.e. what households actually pay out of their monthly budgets— are up 113%! US official price indexes like the CPI do not include mortgage interest rates. Nor any interest rate hikes paid by households for that matter. Mortgage inflation due to rising interest costs have thus risen far faster and higher at 113% than the 39% for the price of buying a house.

The inflation for shelter (houses and rents & related costs) is even higher if home insurance costs, home repairs, and other fees that define ‘shelter’ in government statistics are included. Rents for roughly 50 million renting households typically follow home prices up and in 2023-24 rents have often made up half of the monthly rise in services price inflation in the CPI. Other services prices have also risen 30% and more—i.e. for auto, home and medical insurance; for auto repairs; and for other key and often purchased services like travel or entertainment.

Interest rates in the Biden years accelerated after March 2022 and have remained chronically high ever since, severely impacting households’ budgets: for example, interest rates on credit cards rose from 16% to 24%, bank auto loans roughly doubled to 9% on average for car purchases, while student loans surged to 6.8% and more.

When interest inflation is properly accounted for—along with increases in local government property and other taxes, fees, and other charges not considered by the government’s Consumer Price Index—the true inflation experienced by US households since January 2021 is easily 35%-40% and therefore much higher than the official CPI number of 24%.

This 35%-40% is the price level legacy left by the Biden administration—the level from which the rate of inflation for goods and services and interest rates across the board promise to rise further in 2025 under Trump as he implements tariffs and implements other policy changes that will raise prices further.

The consequence of this inflation legacy is another Biden legacy: still further declining real take home pay for tens of millions of middle class and below households.

US Households’ Declining Real Earnings

While the mainstream media and politicians like to cherry pick wage data to try to show wages have risen under Biden they typically cite ‘wages’ that include salaries, bonuses, and other........

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