It's hard not to smell a rat. Fifteen minutes before Donald Trump announced his postponement of threatened strikes on Iranian power plants and said there had positive talks with Iran about ending the war, there was a sharp surge in S&P E-Mini Futures trades.

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Trump's announcement, an all caps post on his Truth Social platform, appeared at 7.05am New York time. The flurry of futures trades began at 6.50am.

But smelling a rat is not the same as finding one in the pantry.

Insider trading is notoriously difficult to prove just as the suspicion there has been is almost impossible to dispel. Regardless, the people who made those trades made a lot of money. Understandably, there are now calls to identify who profited from the latest so-called TACO (Trump always chickens out) trade.

Minnesota governor and failed 2024 vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz took to Facebook yesterday, saying America needed to know which officials traded in that flurry of activity 15 minutes before Trump posted about his postponement.

Meanwhile, Iran dismissed Trump's claim there had been talks, saying the postponement announcement was designed to manipulate oil prices and the financial market. Not that one takes anything the Iranian regime says on face value but Trump's post did see Wall Street record its best rally since May last year. Oil prices fell by 10 per cent, also after an unusual flurry of activity in the 15 minutes before Trump's post.

The oil and stock markets aren't alone in raising eyebrows in the way the war is being conducted and profited from.

When Times of Israel journalist Emanuel Fabian recently published a story about an inconsequential missile strike near Jerusalem, he was besieged by people demanding he amend the story to say the projectile had been intercepted and that only debris had fallen. Turns out the people making the threats had lost money on a bet through Polymarket, the online prediction betting site, that Iran would not strike Israel on March 10.

One of the stakeholders in Polymarket, which is banned in Australia, is a venture capital company 1789 Capital owned by Donald Trump Jr, who was made an adviser in August last year after investing millions of dollars in the gambling business.

Suspicion punters are benefiting from inside information is almost inevitable when huge sums are won predicting everything from the abduction of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro to the timing of strikes on Iran by Israel and the US.

And when vast sums are made betting on stock markets beholden to Trump's erratic behaviour and grammatically impoverished social media posts - be they about the war or the on-again, off-again tariff threats - there'll always be that telltale musty odour of rat.

The 15-minute market head start on Trump's post has me reaching for a peg, the smell is so overpowering.

HAVE YOUR SAY: Is there any credence to Iran's claim that Donald Trump's postponed threat to attack power plants was designed to manipulate oil and financial markets? Does the timing of an unusual flurry of trading activity in New York make you suspect insider trading? Email us: echidna@theechidna.com.au

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

- Nearly three million low-paid workers would receive thousands more in annual wages under a union push for a 5 per cent pay rise.

- The number of service stations running out of fuel continues to climb as the war in the Middle East drags on, with at least 184 outlets out of petrol across Australia's three most populous states.

- A national crackdown on e-bikes has gathered speed as multiple states slam the brakes on illegal, high-powered mobility devices amid safety concerns.

THEY SAID IT: "Tiptoeing on a tightrope past insider trading laws may be deft and clever, but it doesn't make it right. " - Andrew Ross Sorkin

YOU SAID IT: Just days after the Middle East war started Aussie motorists knew an oil shock was coming. Why didn't Donald Trump see it too?

Span's fuming: "Angry about the way an attack on a distant country - unprovoked - creates casualties worldwide. Trump has no sense of responsibility for 'collateral damage' and is totally unable to see his actions in any sphere as anything but victorious."

"I'm certainly angry about it affects my ability to survive financially," writes Jennifer. "I'm even more angry at the effects on children and civilians in the Middle East who did not want this war but had no capacity to stop it. Both Trump and Netanyahu must be stopped from pursuing their selfish and ill-considered objectives, along with all of those supporting them."

David writes: "Trump's escapade in the Middle East is surely a gigantic brain fart. Where were the adults in the room counselling caution? There probably weren't any - which is part of the problem. Will the war drag on? Quite possibly with a self-aggrandising idiot in the world's most powerful job goaded on by an opportunistic and ruthless Israeli Prime Minister in Netanyahu."

"I'm angry that governments over the past 10 years ignored advice about maintaining sufficient fuel reserves," writes Ian. "I'm angry that they dithered and bickered over the transition to renewable energy. I'm angry that this mismanagement is only fuelling inflation, gas multinational profits and interest rates. I'm angry that the Reserve Bank wants to increase unemployment and that retrenched workers will be punished for their misfortune by CentreLink and JobSeeker. I'm angry that Australia is so closely aligned to the American Idiot that started this and can't stop it. Labor and Coalition politicians need to remember that hell hath no fury like a voter scorned."

Stephanie writes: "I don't think there's much point in being angry about the effect the war has had on our household budget, and we certainly shouldn't be surprised. America's habit of 'shoot first and ask questions later' should have told us all what to expect. The biggest mistake America and Israel have made, or certainly didn't expect, is the massive support, worldwide, for Iran. In contrast, Israel is fast becoming the most hated nation in the world, even more so than Russia, which is saying a lot. As for how long it will take, I can't see it being over anytime soon and when it is, America will need to keep looking over its shoulder for many years to come as I'm sure the Iranian people are patient and will one day get their revenge."

"It seems that far from making America Great Again, the US will be a much lesser country by the time Trump is out of office," writes Martin. "America's standing in the eyes of the world is greatly diminished and all that he has done has facilitated the rise of China as the leading global superpower."

Maggie writes: "Those who are really paying the price are the people of multiple Middle Eastern countries who have lost their homes, their families, or their lives. Our concerns about the price of fuel are legitimate, but let's not lose sight of the big picture - the one that Trump is incapable of seeing."

Greg is on the same wavelength as today's Echidna: "I've heard it said that Trump's behaviour that we perceive as Stupidity Cert IV is nothing more than insider trading taken to new heights. Think about it. Whatever announcement or action he takes has a predictable stock market reaction. Likewise, his TACO retraction has an equally predictable stock market reaction. Do you think he would keep his intentions secret from his, um, advisers a day or two before it hits our ears?"

Erik writes about the Strait of Hormuz: "It's minimum width is about 21 nautical miles [apologies, Erik, I should have written its narrowest navigable width is about two nautical miles]. But yes, Trump's stupidity know no bounds. And everyone else suffers. Given all of that, why are we still AUKUSing?"

"There's barely a minute that goes by when I don't want to scream at Americans, 'It's not good enough to say you didn't vote for this administration'," writes Josh. "Every single one of you is responsible for enabling it and not taking action."

Tony agrees: "Trump has an entire political party, and a court, of enablers. They are equally as stupid."

And trust Daniel to cast a humorous light over the sorry situation: "In moments like these, I recommend a strong dose of Duck Soup, the 1933 Marx Brothers movie kind. This masterpiece of political satire still remains relevant. My (undisclosed) AI also highlights that they were thinking of calling the movie 'The Red Sea'. Oh, the irony! In the movie, Groucho plays Rufus T. Firefly, who is appointed dictator of Freedonia. Duck Soup is a satirical jab at how easily a country can be steered into absolute political and military madness by an incompetent leader. Anyway here's one of the many quotes uttered by Groucho that seems perfect for one DJT: 'He may look like an idiot and talk like an idiot, but don't let that fool you. He really is an idiot.'"

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The TACO trade: inside the 15-minute head start

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Labor tosses up reform options as inflation storm looms

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