In the past, Australian defence planners knew that the "tyranny of distance" worked in our favour.

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Today, that presumption looks increasingly fragile. The world's security environment is shrinking, alliances are under strain, and military power is being exercised in new and unsettling ways - as just happened in Venezuela.

When I worked in DIO, our five-year projections were usually very accurate although there was always the possibility of something unforeseeable arriving out of left field to undermine them, such as the global financial crisis in 2008 or Covid in 2019.

Therefore, my 12-month projections should be spot-on! Immodesty aside, these are my picks for 10 defence and security trends and developments that could affect Australia in 2026. (Not necessarily in order of priority or likelihood.)

First, the intensifying rivalry between the US and China. This competition is now entrenched. It is about technology, military access, alliances, and influence across the Indo-Pacific. For Australia, it means withstanding sustained pressure to align more closely with Washington while trying to maintain our economically vital trade relationship with Beijing.

Second, the Taiwan Strait as a potential flashpoint. Even without war, increased military exercises, air and naval harassment, and cyber operations raise the risk of miscalculation by China, the US, or Taiwan. Any serious crisis would disrupt shipping, insurance, and trade flows across Asia. Australia would also face immediate US expectations to provide diplomatic, logistical or military support.

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Third,........

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