Cubans rally in Havana to stand in solidarity with Venezuela, January 3, 2026. Photo courtesy Presidencia Cuba/X.

In late January, the Trump administration dramatically escalated its long-running economic war on Cuba, signing an executive order that threatens punitive tariffs against any country that supplies the island with oil. Framed by the White House as a national security measure, the order declares a state of emergency and accuses Cuba of ties to hostile foreign powers. In practice, the policy aims to choke off Cuba’s access to fuel, a lifeline for electricity generation, hospitals, food distribution, and water sanitation, in an already fragile economy strained by decades of brutal US sanctions.

The impact was immediate. Mexico’s state oil company suspended shipments, and other suppliers appeared to hesitate under threat of US retaliation. With Cuba able to meet only a fraction of its domestic energy needs, the prospect of a full-scale fuel cut-off has raised alarms about prolonged blackouts, humanitarian collapse, and the risk of military escalation in the Caribbean. As Washington openly speaks of regime change, the order amounts to collective punishment that could reshape not only Cuba’s future, but power dynamics across Latin America and the Global South.

What follows is a conversation between Cam Scott, Samantha Hislop, and Rob Crooks, members of the Canadian Network on Cuba, on what the new sanctions mean, why Cuba remains a target, and what international solidarity looks like when the margins for survival grow dangerously thin.

Cam Scott (CS): This is possibly the most dangerous week in Cuba for many decades, perhaps since the Special Period in the 1990s. The risk of US invasion, of US encirclement and naval blockade, and the threat of US interference against trade partners, is stated and severe. So there’s an awful lot to say, and it’s important to come together and start to think about how we are going to move in solidarity with the Cuban people this week. How is it looking to everyone here at the moment?

Samantha Hislop (SH): As of Thursday, January 29, Donald Trump has signed an executive order which threatens tariffs on any country that provides oil, or fuel more broadly, to Cuba. So that’s a huge escalation in the sanctions and economic asphyxiation regime that the US has been imposing on Cuba for over six decades. It’s probably the most serious measure ever taken against Cuba.

As of right now, to our knowledge, there are no oil shipments on the way to Cuba, and none are expected. Pemex, which is Mexico’s state oil company, has halted deliveries following intense pressure from the United States. While a tanker carrying roughly 85,000 to 90,000 barrels of oil arrived in Havana on January 9, planned subsequent shipments were cancelled later in the month. Bloomberg reported on January 26 that a tanker that had been slated to sail to Cuba had instead turned back, and no further oil has reached the island since the end of January (although the Mexican government has said it intends to uphold its oil supply contract despite US pressure).

We know that Cuba can only supply about 40 percent of its domestic energy needs. That’s how much it produces internally. I know they have been trying to increase their internal production recently, but we know that until now the other 60 percent has to be imported from other countries. So this is a barbaric measure, first of all—I have to say that. This could have severe consequences, because every country needs oil. It’s needed for the most basic of services: for hospitals, surgeries, incubators, dialysis machines, refrigeration, electricity, water sanitation, literally everything. I don’t have to explain that, but Cuba needs oil, and they need to be able to import oil, and the United States has signed this executive order. So that’s where we are right now.

Rob Crooks (RC): I think it’s good that you explained the implications, because a lot of people might think, “Oh, there’s no oil so they can’t run automobiles,” which would be bad enough. You can’t deliver food, you can’t run ambulances and things of that nature. But they need oil to power their electrical grid. No electricity means spoiled food, it means no energy for hospitals. And Cuba has been suffering under this blockade for more than half a century. February 3 is the 64th anniversary of Kennedy signing the blockade against Cuba. And just by chance, it seems to be one of the coldest weeks in Cuba ever. I saw that in some places it’s getting down to zero degrees Celsius, and the country is already having daily blackouts because of the blockade, and because they can’t get the parts they need to update their electrical grid.

So I don’t really know how people are staying warm. And then there are all these other needs that still have to be........

© Canadian Dimension