Only a couple of years ago, talk about global oil demand hitting a plateau was widespread, with Canada’s natural resources minister at the time suggesting its use would probably peak in 2024.

And it was only a few years ago when the country’s energy regulator issued a rather pessimistic outlook for natural gas, indicating production in Canada would remain flat until 2040, and then fall, under its evolving policy scenario.

Times have clearly changed.

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On Tuesday, the new energy futures report by the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) offers what analysts and producers believe is a more realistic reflection of what could unfold in the coming years.

It paints a picture of growing demand for electricity, short-term increases in oil — and potentially over the longer run — and rising natural gas production as Canada has finally joined the global LNG game.

“We’re obviously in a situation right now where we’re having an energy crisis, and having a mismatch between supply and demand — not preparing for actual supply — is dangerous,” said Heather Exner-Pirot, director of natural resources, energy and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

“This is a more honest look, a more realistic look, and it leads to better policy.”

With growing concerns in recent years about global energy security, decarbonization and affordability, the agency’s report examined different scenarios for energy development in Canada.

It includes a baseline outlook predicated on current government policies — along with high and low variations — and a scenario that assumes the country reaches net-zero emissions by........

© Calgary Herald