A rare paradigm of cooperation between India and Pakistan, the Indus Waters Treaty, which was brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has remained operative against the backgrounds of wars, decades of tension, and ever-present nuclear rivalries. For over sixty five years, within the context of this tortuous treaty, there have been divisions of the six rivers in the Indus basin–three eastward rivers for India and the remaining three for Pakistan.

While the treaty has been put to the test on numerous occasions, it has survived even the worst of times. However, after the latest attack in Pahalgam (Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir) that killed tourists and drew sharp accusations from New Delhi, India has taken this extraordinary step: Turning off the tap. For the first time, it suspended water flows for 24 hours, then released a surge to Pakistan, plunging the treaty into unchartered waters.

The sudden, unilaterally induced pulling of the buffer water from a joint resource would qualify as weaponisation, with consequences that might go way beyond bilateral relations. Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed nations in the world and relies on the Indus River system for 75% of its freshwater requirements, which supports 90% of agricultural production, the engine of her economy and food security.

Suddenly, halting and releasing these water supplies would cause havoc in Pakistan’s irrigation systems, leading to crop failure in the short term with an eventual cascading effect into economic collapse and mass rural-to-urban migration in the long term.

The Indian side, however, too has its share of water-related disadvantages: Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh depend on these river systems for irrigation and hydropower generation. Of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh,........

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