The World Bank Group (WBG) in its 2023 released ‘Pakistan – Country climate and development report’ pointed out that’The total investment needs for a comprehensive response to Pakistan’s climate and development challenges between 2023 and 2030 amount to around US$348 billion… This consists of US$ 152 billion for adaptation and resilience and US$196 billion for deep decarbonization…’

Although the Report rightly indicates the estimate to be on the lower side as follows ‘due to the unavailability of data on the investment needs of key transformations, such as a sustainable agri-food system, flood risk management plan, shock-responsive social protection system, and climate-resilient rural connectivity’ even then the estimated amount of US$348 billion for eight years (2023-2030), or around US$43.5 billion annually is a gross underestimation.

This is because Pakistan is among the top-ten climate change vulnerable countries where, according to United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Pakistan is the 8th most climate change vulnerable country and that the global estimation of climate finance needs are astronomical, whereby according to the ‘Third report of the independent high-level expert group’ [IHLEG] annual climate finance needs to reach US$1 trillion by 2030, and US$1.3 trillion by 2035!

Moreover, the WBG’s Report itself highlighted significant changes already being seen in the shape of heat waves, and floods for instance, which means likely increases in initial estimates of climate disasters over time, and also an overall upward-evolving climate finance related amounts for creating resilience, and adaptation as the pace of climate change crisis continues to pick up. Hence, the WBG needs to see the likely immense under-estimation of Pakistan’s climate change related needs with regard to even adaptation, resilience, and decarbonization.

For instance, in the Report’s preface, it was pointed out that ’In 2022, Pakistan endured devastating droughts and floods that destroyed assets, lives, and livelihoods on a massive scale.

First, a severe heatwave, previously a 1-in-1000-year event, saw temperatures continuously above 45°C, resulting in crop losses, power outages, and forest fires. Then came the unprecedented monsoon rains, the heaviest and most concentrated ever recorded. …The recently published Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) for the 2022 floods estimates total damages in excess of US$14.9 billion and total economic losses of about US$15.2 billion…Estimated needs for rehabilitation and resilient reconstruction are at least US$16.3 billion…’Having said that, according to a February 2025 released report by ‘Germanwatch’ that figure increased to US$54 billion on account of economic loss by floods in 2022, which once again points out very low estimation by the WBG of climate change needs of the country.

There is also a race against time. Scientific evidence indicates climate change has already turned a corner in terms of increasing pace, generally in terms of the last few decades, and particularly during the last few years, where each successive year has broken previous years’ average annual global warming temperature.

According to the ‘Climate Change 2023 Synthesis Report’ by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it was pointed out in this regard that ’It is virtually certain that hot extremes (including heatwaves) have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since the 1950s…, while cold extremes (including cold waves) have become less frequent and less severe, with high confidence that........

© Business Recorder