Want to 233x your money? Why this new form of gambling is a dangerous trap

August 18, 2026 — 12:00pm

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Last month it came out that a man named Gabriel Perez made more than $143,000 by predicting what Donald Trump would say in his speeches.

The rise of US-based prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi among them, allowed Perez to gamble on future events through “binary option” bets on whether something will (or will not) happen.

There was a problem: Perez was Trump’s teleprompter operator. He is no longer in the job, although he does not appear to have been charged at this stage.

Having grown more than 380 per cent globally in less than a year, these prediction markets can pay high returns if you bet on unlikely events. For example, at current prices, you could 233x your money by betting on Australia to win the 2030 FIFA World Cup.

It is illegal for these prediction market providers to operate in Australia; however, it takes as little as a $10 VPN to join them. Even worse, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) – the regulator that ordered the ban – admits that using a VPN to circumvent geo-blockers is completely legal.

They aren’t all bad news. According to Australian-American economist Professor Justin Wolfers, “prediction markets produce better forecasts than the alternative, whether that’s polls, pundits, models, or other approaches”.

Prediction markets are comprised of a few sophisticated bettors against masses of small gamblers who guess based on little more than vibes.

In the 2024 US presidential election, for........

© Brisbane Times