Israel’s attack on Iran opens the next phase of the Great Middle Eastern War that began on October 7, 2023. Over the past 20 months, that war has played out on fronts across the region and has drawn in actors from around the globe.

There is much we don’t yet know about what has happened, let alone what will happen. But it is clear that Iran has suffered significant damage to its leadership, its military and industrial capabilities, and perhaps its nuclear program. The endgame of this conflict and the future of the region will be profoundly shaped by how a wounded Iran responds.

Iranians participate in an Eid Ghadir ceremony and a protest march against the Israeli attacks in Tehran on Saturday.Credit: Getty Images

There are four basic possibilities. Their consequences range from a bigger, bloodier Middle Eastern mess to a potentially surprising diplomatic denouement: a far stronger nuclear deal than United States President Donald Trump could have secured just a few days ago.

First, Iran could go nasty but narrow, striking back against Israel but avoiding US bases or other regional targets. Drone, missile or terrorist attacks against Israel (some of which are already underway) would offer a measure of vengeance. But this strategy would seek to avoid triggering a larger, riskier conflict with Washington.

The........

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