Outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell may well have presided over the last interest rate cut of his career given the recent run of data. And Kevin Warsh, his would-be replacement, may find himself waiting uncomfortably long — right up close to the midterm elections — to start the policy easing that President Donald Trump expects from his hand-picked new chair.

If the past year is any indication, that scenario would have Trump berating the rookie Fed chair on Truth Social in no time, testing his commitment to Fed independence and riling financial markets.

© Bloomberg