The potential collapse of clerical authority in Iran is not signaling reform—it may be paving the way for something far more dangerous. As uncertainty looms following the disappearance of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, investigative journalist Arbana Xharra, in an interview to Blitz, warns that the Islamic Republic is not weakening, but mutating—shifting toward hardened military control under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps while simultaneously expanding its shadow networks across Europe and beyond. What emerges, she argues, is not merely a domestic power struggle, but a coordinated system of coercion, proxy warfare, and ideological influence with global consequences.

Recently Xharra gave an interview to Blitz where she has discussed wide range of issues, including threats posed by Iranian proxies and the fate of Tehran regime.

Blitz: With the elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and uncertainty surrounding his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei, are we witnessing a structural transformation of the Islamic Republic—from clerical rule to de facto military control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps? How sustainable is such a model?

Arbana Xharra: Yes, we may be seeing a shift from clerical rule to military control by the IRGC, which has already built enormous power inside Iran’s economy, security system, and politics. If the religious leadership weakens, the IRGC is the most organized force ready to take over. This kind of system can survive in the short term because it relies on discipline and force, but it is not stable in the long run. A regime that rules only through fear, without legitimacy or public trust, eventually faces internal cracks. So, this would not be real change, it would simply be a different form of authoritarian control.

After terrorist attack, Arbana Xharra in hospital

Blitz: In your assessment, does the current transition in Iran represent a crisis of legitimacy within the regime, or merely a consolidation of power under a different elite faction?

Arbana Xharra: Iran is facing both a crisis of legitimacy and a consolidation of power at the same time. Large parts of the population, especially young people, no longer believe in the regime’s ideology or leadership. At the same time, those in power are tightening their grip, concentrating authority in a smaller group of hardliners, mainly within the IRGC. This creates a system that looks strong on the surface, but is actually fragile underneath because it depends on repression instead of public support.

Blitz: Historically, authoritarian systems often rely on a balance between ideology and coercion. Do you believe Iran is now entering a phase where coercion fully replaces ideological legitimacy?

Arbana Xharra: Yes, I believe Iran is entering a phase where coercion is replacing ideological legitimacy but this is the result of a long process. For decades, many Iranians resisted the regime were they  met with severe repression, including imprisonment and executions. So it is not that people were silent; it is that dissent was brutally punished. What is different today is the scale and the courage of the younger generation. They are more connected, more aware, and far less willing to live in fear. As a result, the regime can no longer rely on ideology the way it once did, and it is increasingly turning to force, arrests, violence, and intimidation, to stay in power. When a system depends more on coercion than belief, it shows it is losing its legitimacy, and that is exactly what we are seeing in Iran today.

Blitz: After more than four decades under Islamist rule since 1979, what are the deepest structural and psychological barriers preventing a democratic transition in Iran today?

Arbana Xharra: The obstacles to a democratic transition in Iran are both structural and psychological, and they reinforce each other. Structurally, power is concentrated in unelected institutions, the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and especially the security apparatus like the IRGC, which can block any real political reform regardless of public will. At the same time, decades of repression have fragmented the opposition, making it difficult to form a unified alternative. Psychologically, there is a deep climate of fear. The regime has used executions, mass arrests, and violent crackdowns to send a clear message that dissent comes at a high cost. So the challenge is not just removing a regime, it is overcoming a deeply entrenched system and the fear it has instilled in society for over four decades.

Arbana Xharra in her office in Kosovo

Blitz: To what extent can internal dissent—students, labor groups, ethnic........

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