For the first time since President Donald Trump began his second term in January and launched a concerted effort to end the war in Ukraine, it is Russia-not Ukraine-that faces mounting pressure from Washington to demonstrate a genuine commitment to peace negotiations. With US officials set to arrive in Moscow on March 12, following Ukraine’s agreement to a US-backed 30-day cease-fire proposal at a meeting in Saudi Arabia, the key question remains: Will Russia accept the deal?

A straightforward rejection-“nyet”-is certainly a possibility. However, it is not an inevitable outcome. While Moscow’s official rhetoric suggests an aversion to any temporary halt in hostilities, geopolitical analysts believe that a more complex response may emerge. Russia’s decision will likely depend on a strategic calculus that weighs battlefield momentum, diplomatic leverage, and the broader political landscape in Europe and the United States.

If Russia’s actions align with its public statements, rejecting the cease-fire proposal appears to be the most likely scenario. President Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking officials in Moscow have consistently maintained that they are not seeking a mere cease-fire but rather a comprehensive settlement that addresses what they perceive as the root causes of the conflict. These demands include Ukrainian neutrality, significant reductions to Ukraine’s military capabilities, and a change in Kyiv’s leadership or at least a pathway to the departure of President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Moreover, Moscow views the war as more than just a conflict with Ukraine; it sees it as a broader struggle against NATO and Western influence in Eastern Europe. The Kremlin has consistently pushed for a restructuring of European security arrangements that would reduce NATO’s clout and grant Russia greater influence over regional affairs. A temporary truce does not align with these ambitions,........

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