In a fresh wave of pressure diplomacy, US President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Tehran: accept Washington’s terms for reviving the Iran nuclear deal or face the collapse of its vital oil industry. Speaking at the Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh on May 13, Trump made clear that his administration, if reinstated in office, would not shy away from aggressive economic warfare to force Iran back to the negotiating table on American terms.

“If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch… we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure, drive Iranian oil exports to zero,” Trump said in front of regional investors and diplomats. He portrayed his former sanctions regime as a successful model of coercion, claiming that “they were a virtually bankrupt country because of what I did.”

This blunt threat arrives as fragile negotiations are underway in Oman between US and Iranian officials, aiming to rekindle the terms of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. While initial reports from Iranian diplomats signal some progress, Trump’s renewed hostility could jeopardize any mutual understanding reached during the quiet diplomacy currently underway.

The original JCPOA, agreed upon under President Barack Obama in 2015, had eased decades-long international sanctions on Iran in exchange for strict limits on its nuclear program and intrusive international inspections. However, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018, branding it as “the worst deal ever” and accusing Iran of violating the spirit, if not the letter, of the accord. Tehran has always rejected those allegations.

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