Oscars 2026 predictions: Who will win - and who should?

In the final few days before the Academy Awards, and with several key races tightening, here are the BBC film critics' final expert predictions.

The race for the best picture Oscar often has two frontrunners by the time the big night arrives. Will Moonlight or La La Land win? Coda or The Power of the Dog? When award season began this year, it looked as if those two frontrunners would be Hamnet and One Battle after Another, the winners of the Golden Globes for best drama and best musical or comedy, respectively. (Is One Battle After Another really a "musical or comedy"? That's another article.) Since then, though, Hamnet has dropped back and Sinners has had a burst of speed: Ryan Coogler's bravura vampire chiller picked up major prizes at the Baftas and the Actor Awards, and it seems to generate more and more goodwill every time it's discussed. One Battle After Another is still – just – the favourite. Paul Thomas Anderson has made a wildly distinctive masterpiece which has triumphed at one awards ceremony after another. Its focus on the clashes between undocumented immigrants and US law-enforcement officials is also staggeringly topical. But it hasn't been without controversy, with some commentators complaining about its sexualised depiction of black women. My hunch is that Sinners will overtake it, and One Battle After Another will fall at the final hurdle. (NB)

In a career full of brilliant films as different as Boogie Nights and Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson has not won a single Oscar – not even screenplay, often a consolation prize – despite 14 nominations so far. And while he definitely has the "It's his turn" narrative going for him, that's not why he should win. It takes a great director to do what he does in One Battle After Another, pulling together many strands into a single enthralling film. It's politically up-to-the-minute, the performances are comic gems, there is a touching father-daughter story along with car-chase action and comedy, and Anderson blends it all together without a single weak moment. Ryan Coogler is a great director too, and if One Battle didn't exist the Oscar might have been his, but Anderson has won every precursor award, including the Bafta and Directors Guild Award. He is also a likely winner as producer if One Battle wins best picture, and is a strong contender in adapted screenplay, so he could triple his Oscar haul in a single night. Whatever happens in those other categories, I don't see anyone else winning best director. It's not simply his time; the film is thoroughly his vision and one of his career bests. (CJ)

Every so often, there's an Oscar category which is more or less a foregone conclusion. Last year, it was best supporting actor: Kieran Culkin kept on winning awards for his livewire turn in A Real Pain, and so absolutely no one was surprised when he added an Oscar to his pile of trophies. This year's equivalent is the best actress category. Ever since Hamnet premiered at the Telluride Film Festival in August, people have been predicting that Jessie Buckley would win the Oscar for her fierce embodiment of Shakespeare's wife. And in the months since then, no serious challengers have emerged. I didn't buy into Chloé Zhao's weepie as wholly as some critics, and I was sceptical about the big shouting and crying scenes that might as well have had "Oscar clip" written across the bottom of the screen. But Buckley is a dazzlingly charismatic and talented actress who has long been destined to win an Academy Award. If this is her year, then I can't complain, even if I thought that three of the other nominees – Rose Byrne, Renate Reinsve and Emma Stone – gave better, more nuanced performances. (NB)

Once up on a time, way back in December, this seemed to be Timothée Chalamet's........

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