The intensifying confrontation between Iran, Israel and the United States is no longer confined to the Middle East. Its shockwaves are being felt across the South Caucasus, a region that has quietly assumed the role of a strategic buffer between competing power centres. Because for countries such as Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, the risks are no longer theoretical. They are rather structural, immediate and increasingly difficult to hedge.

At its core, the South Caucasus sits at the intersection of rival geopolitical axes. To the south lies Iran, facing mounting pressure from Israel and its Western allies. And to the north, Russia remains another rival of the West with its growing ambitions for the region despite its diminished bandwidth following the war in Ukraine. Besides, Armenia, a country at the crossroad of a fragile peace and obscure future due to its complex domestic political system, remains elusive to guarantee an eternal peace in the region. This geography, once seen as a liability, has in recent years become an asset, and today, it risks becoming a fault line.

However, the most immediate danger stems from escalation. Should the Iran–Israel confrontation widen into direct and sustained conflict, the South Caucasus could find itself exposed to spillover effects ranging from missile trajectories to cyber warfare and covert operations. As one regional analyst told Reuters, a prolonged Iran–Israel confrontation could “expand beyond its immediate theatre through proxy networks and logistical........

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