The timing is difficult to dismiss as a coincidence. As NATO leaders prepare to gather in Türkiye to discuss the future of European security, Russia has launched one of its fiercest waves of attacks against Ukraine in recent months. Cities across the country have again come under missile and drone bombardment, while fighting continues to intensify along key sectors of the eastern front. Militarily, these operations fit Moscow's broader campaign to wear down Ukraine. Politically, however, they send an unmistakable message beyond the battlefield.

Russia has long sought to shape diplomatic events through military escalation. Whenever significant international meetings approach, whether NATO summits, G7 gatherings or major conferences on Ukraine, the Kremlin has frequently attempted to alter the political atmosphere by changing facts on the ground. The objective is rarely limited to territorial gains. Rather, it is to influence the calculations of foreign governments before they make critical decisions.

The NATO summit in Türkiye provides precisely such an opportunity.

From Moscow's perspective, NATO remains the central strategic challenge. Russian officials have repeatedly argued that the Alliance's expansion towards Russia's borders constitutes an existential threat, a narrative that has been a cornerstone of Kremlin foreign policy for more than two decades. While Ukraine's NATO membership remains distant, Moscow continues to portray every enhancement of NATO's support for Kyiv as further evidence that the conflict has evolved into a broader confrontation with the West.

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