As argued in our previous analysis, the conflict in Ukraine is no longer simply a war over territory. It has become an undeclared struggle over the future international order. If that assessment is correct, Armenia may soon emerge as the next critical arena in that confrontation.

Four years into the war, the battlefield has expanded far beyond Ukraine. What began as Russia's attempt to restore its influence over a former Soviet republic has gradually evolved into a broader geopolitical contest between the US-led West and the Russia-Iran partnership. Like the Cold War, this confrontation is no longer confined to a single front. It is being fought simultaneously in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and the South Caucasus. The objective is not simply to win a regional conflict but to shape the geopolitical architecture of the emerging world order.

The strategic trend has become increasingly difficult to ignore. Russia has failed to bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence and has, in many respects, lost the country for the foreseeable future. Beyond Ukraine, Moscow has suffered setbacks across several regions that once formed the backbone of its foreign policy. The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government significantly weakened Russia's position in the Middle East. In Latin America, Venezuela, long considered one of Moscow's closest strategic partners, has slipped from Russia's orbit following dramatic political developments. In Africa, Russia's influence has come under growing pressure in countries such as Mali. Meanwhile, Iran has watched much of its regional proxy network........

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