Recent years have shown that the geopolitical order in the former Soviet space is rapidly shifting. States in the South Caucasus and Central Asia are redefining their foreign policies, prioritizing national sovereignty, diversified partnerships and regional connectivity over reliance on Moscow.

This shift threatens the traditional dominance of the Kremlin. Given Russia’s recent resurgence of confidence, especially after what many in Moscow consider gains in Ukraine, there is a growing risk that the Kremlin may attempt to reassert its influence through interference in neighboring regions, given the facts of looming possibility of peace treaty negotiations.

The backdrop

Once, Russia exercised near-total dominance over the South Caucasus. Its security architecture, military bases, and mediation role in regional conflicts allowed it to shape outcomes according to its interests.

For years, Russian-Azerbaijani relations have looked stable on the surface, yet underneath they carry a set of unresolved contradictions that are slowly turning into strategic pressure points. None of these contradictions alone signal a breakdown, but together they reveal an increasingly fragile balance that could shift abruptly if Moscow decides it must reassert its influence in the post-Soviet space once the fighting in Ukraine moves toward a political end.

But recent events have undermined that dominance. During the 2023 conflict over Garabagh, Russia was unable to prevent the re-assertion of Azerbaijani control. Its peacekeepers withdrew, and Armenian forces failed to mobilize effective support from Moscow a clear signal that Russian guarantees no longer hold the same weight.

In parallel, Azerbaijan has been building alternative east-west and north-south transit links, energy routes, and trade corridors tied less to Russia and more to Türkiye, Europe, and global markets.

Another sensitive point is the Zangazur corridor. Russia has watched with discomfort as Azerbaijan expands cooperation with the United States and Europe around this route. Moscow expected exclusive control over all transport corridors in the region. Granting Western actors a role, even indirectly, challenges Russia’s traditional monopoly. It also signals that the South Caucasus is no longer a region where Moscow decides everything alone.

The situation in other countries of the region is mixed. Armenia has been actively working to distance itself from Russia for several years and

© AzerNews